The Stoxx Europe 600 index is down 12% since the close on 2 April, prior to the announcements of US tariffs and subsequent retaliatory measures. We update our estimated net income sensitivity to market declines, as originally set out in our 2025 outlook: Quid games (published 6 January 2025).
Latest round of tariffs will come into effect on 5 and 9 April. Donald Trump announced the imposition of a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the United States from 5 April. For countries with which the United States has the biggest trade deficits, higher, individualised reciprocal tariffs will take effect on 9 April.
The US imposed steel and aluminium tariffs which sparked a response from the EU. The emerging trade tensions saw Asian equity markets close lower.
A potential ceasefire in Ukraine added support to European equities despite rising trade tensions between the EU and the US with the EU announcing retaliatory tariffs.
A weak than expected US CPI print saw the sell off in bonds continue in the US and oil prices rise.
Metals prices lifted over concerns of tariffs and tight supply.
US inflation print failed to provide a sustained improvement in investor sentiment in Asia. Investors potentially view the inflation data as not being weak enough to immediately change the outlook for the Fed. US President Donald Trump’s threats of retaliatory tariffs against the EU’s counter tariffs to the US steel and aluminium tariffs are also weighing on sentiment.
During the course of 4Q24, European 12M forward earnings estimates started to improve, while they softened slightly in the US after increasing by 13% in 2024, as Chart 2 shows. This was largely driven by expectations of gradually increasing growth in Europe, while growth rates in the US are expected to slow slightly.
We anticipate further volatility amid tariff concerns, but we continue to expect gains for the S&P 500 and see the index reaching 6,600 by year-end. We believe a solid US economy, healthy corporate earnings growth, and further advancements in AI should support the rally. We also see opportunities in Asian ex-Japan equities, including those in Taiwan and India. In Europe, we like structured strategies on German equities.
The sharp move higher in yields outside of US has been an important driver of US dollar weakness at the start of this year. The 10-year JGB yield hit a fresh year to date high overnight of 1.58% and has now risen by around 40 basis points year to date.
