At a calm press briefing, the National Bank of Romania unveiled its November Inflation Report, announcing upward revisions to its inflation trajectory. The overall message conveyed stability, indicating that the Bank remains on a steady course despite the higher projections
With all driving factors set to remain in place, we expect inflation in Italy to continue to move within a narrow sub-2% band over the fourth quarter and confirm our forecast for average 2025 inflation at 1.7%
The Polish Statistical Office has revised August’s year-on-year CPI inflation upward to 2.9%, from the initial flash estimate of 2.8%. However, we estimate that core inflation eased to 3.1% YoY, maintaining its downward trajectory. We expect policymakers to deliver one more 25bp rate cut this year, in November
The UK CPI was weaker than expected in February at 2.8%yr compared to 3.0%yr in January. Core inflation edged down from 3.7%yr to 3.5%yr, but services inflation held up at 5.0%yr. However, decrease in both was mainly driven by weaker core goods inflation, while services inflation, which the BoE officials follow closely, was unchanged at 5%yr.
