Central Banks

Treasury Volatility and ECB Outlook: Contrasting Economic Signals and Liquidity Dynamics

In the Eurozone, ECB’s Schnabel sees money market rates rising as system reserves decline, with banks then turning to the ECB for liquidity. It is part of the plan and could happen in mid-2026, but is more likely to happen later. Meanwhile, US Treasuries are being buffeted by contrasting impulses. It's been quite a week, but we broadly end where we started

Muted Euro Momentum, Dovish BoC, and Fragile CEE FX Define the Week

Euro Awaits Ifo Signal as Yen and CEE Currencies Track Risk Sentiment

Global Bond Markets: US Regional Banking Worries Drive Flight to Safety, Gilts Rally Ahead of UK Budget

Global bond yields are pushing lower amidst a broader flight to safety, with Gilts leading the way. Even now, Gilt yields still seem high, driven by a hawkish Bank of England and a material risk premium. Gilt swap spreads were more sensitive to French turmoil than to dynamics in US Treasuries or Bunds, but this should change with more budget certainty

Metals and Tech Lead Rally as Yen Weakens After Japan’s LDP Election; USD Defies Correlation Patterns

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 6th

The week opens on the typical 2025 trade: Metals, propelled by Gold (1.90%) and Palladium (4.50%!), Cryptocurrencies, and Tech rage higher.

Global Markets Recap: Metals Surge, USD Strength, and Central Bank Highlights

Week in review – UN Assembly, ever-stronger metals, Powell and a huge USD performance,

A week dominated by central bank communications and seasonal dynamics kept investors on edge, even as the UN General Assembly passed without major geopolitical surprises except for some memorable US President Trump quotes.

USD Holds Firm on Jobless Claims Rebound, Eyes on Fed Cuts

Jobless claims dropped back sharply yesterday, a rare positive development for the US jobs market and the dollar. But we still think the greenback is due to give up its post-Fed gains in the near term. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan surprised with a hawkish vote split as it held rates unchanged today, raising the chances of an October hike and JPY outperformance

Gold Surges to Record High Amid Dollar Weakness and Central Bank Demand

The week started slowly in the US and Canada as markets were closed for the Labour Day holiday.

Fed Turmoil, French Political Risks, and Shifting FX Dynamics

Having enjoyed a brief session on Friday of unalloyed joy as Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a September rate cut, financial markets may now face some uncertainty on political developments in France and the US. We're still happy with a bearish story for the dollar, but it might have to be the more defensive Japanese yen or Swiss franc which takes the lead now

Data Quality Challenges Heighten Central Bank Risks Across Developed Markets

Trigger warning: this article contains the greatest puns you'll ever read on this website. Oh, and James Smith's look at the week ahead...

US Treasury Market Faces Headwinds from Fiscal Expansion and Rate Outlook

The Big Beautiful Bill passed in US Congress, putting even more pressure on the fiscal outlook and thus longer-dated USTs. US payrolls came in better than expected, contributing to higher yields across the curve. The ECB minutes show more members are concerned about undershooting inflation, keeping the 1.75% market-implied landing zone firmly intact

CAD Outlook: Bearish Sentiment Amid Trade and Inflation Concerns

The Bank of Canada cut this week, facing potential economic headwinds from trade policy uncertainty. While growth has improved over the last two quarters, the BoC noted that it expected the trade conflict with the US to weigh on economic activity, while also increasing prices and inflation.

Does borrowing make sense in 2025?

US Treasury yields have been on a rollercoaster this year. But we expect the appeal of borrowing strategies to rise as the global rate-cutting cycle continues. Borrowing can form part of a financial plan, subject to awareness of its risks.  

Central Bank Demand Powers Gold's Strong Rally: A Look at 2024 and Beyond

Gold started 2025 on a strong footing, following a stellar performance in 2024. Barring possible setbacks, we believe that underlying factors will continue to support gold this year.