Bunds

Foreign Demand Supports Treasuries While Bunds Emerge as Key Hedge Against Volatility

US Treasuries traded heavy on Monday, on a day of complexities and different cross winds that makes interpretation tough. Bunds remain a good safe asset to hide for any US-driven turmoil, which can help keep yields close to swaps. Whilst we still see Bunds underperform swaps due to supply pressures, the room is more limited since 'Liberation Day' 

EUR Rates Resilience Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Volatile Risk Sentiment

• Despite strong intraday volatility, risk remains contained in EUR rates. 
• Barring an unlikely unilateral walk back, volatility should start to abate over the short term given the low downside in the ECB path. 
• Tariffs uncertainty will not go anywhere, and we should not go into a low volatility regime as medium-term upside risk will become more material. 

US Treasuries and Market Sentiment: A Mixed Outlook Amid Fiscal and Policy Shifts

Rates Spark: The glass half empty trade. The drivers of Doge, Bessent and SLR have been added to in the guise of weaker consumer confidence and a ratchet down in expectations for the terminal rate. This market is now considering the possible downsides ahead. Can it last? Well yes for a bit. But we are constrained to the downside for yields, until or unless we seriously contemplate a recession of sorts