FX Outlook: EURUSD Below 200-DMA, RBA Holds Steady, and Japanese Bond Market Tests Demand

In the FX 

The EURUSD remains offered below its 200-DMA today, although the softening Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations make more sense than softening ECB expectations, provided that the ECB is NOT in a comfortable place to call a pause at this month's meeting amid the uptick in latest inflation figures. Therefore, if the ECB expectations, which may have softened unnecessarily are restored into the next ECB meeting, we should see the EURUSD find a solid ground before the critical 1.0615 Fibonacci support.  

On the flip side of the world, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.1% at today's monetary policy meeting. The EURAUD rebounded from a month-dip as investors saw opportunity to trade the soft RBA stance versus a possibly unfunded softness in ECB expectations, which justifies a further upside correction in the EURAUD toward the 1.70 mark – especially when the news from China remains disquieting. 

Elsewhere in the Pacific, Japan is testing the market demand for its 10 and 30-year bonds this week, as the finance ministry sells 2.7 trillion-yen worth of 10-year bonds today and 900-billion-yen worth of 30-year bonds on Thursday. Of course, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is out and buying a massive amount of bonds to make sure that the YCC not too relaxed, and traders are looking for signs of still sluggish demand from local investors that could force the BoJ to act earlier than ... never. The Japanese 10-year yield is currently at a 9-year high, but is still below 65bp, meaning that it has ways to strengthen. However, when the Japanese yields will become interesting enough for domestic Japanese investors - which are also among the biggest buyers of US papers, the returning home will apply a decent pressure on the US long term yields.