Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 4.75% amid inflation pressures and rupiah weakness, but we expect a cut in December to support growth. Risks remain skewed toward delays if currency pressures persist or the Fed postpones easinga
Bank Indonesia and the People’s Bank of China are both expected to maintain current interest rate levels. Key releases include Japan's GDP, trade figures, and inflation, Taiwan's export orders and Singapore's GDP
Bank Indonesia (BI) delivered a surprise second consecutive rate cut, signalling a clear focus on growth despite recent strong data. With inflation still below target and US Federal Reserve easing expected from September, we now see BI front-loading its final 25bp cut to the fourth quarter of this
The fundamental problem for Indonesia remains weak growth. This continues to be reflected best in the chart of declining nominal GDP growth, as previous discussed here (see GREED & fear - Powell as party pooper, 19 December 2024), whereas real GDP growth has been extraordinarily stable hovering around 5% for the past 11 years, excluding the Covid period (see Exhibit 21). Nominal GDP growth slowed to 6.0% last year, down from 15.4% in 2022 and 15% in 2010.
