Japanese data shows inflationary pressures are firm and that exports remain resilient despite tariffs. An upbeat flash purchasing manager’s index suggests the economy is on the recovery path. While these outcomes favour a Bank of Japan rate hike in December, government pressure to keep policy loose might delay a move until next year
October inflation was confirmed at 2.8%YoY while core inflation likely moderated to 2.9%YoY from 3.2%YoY in September, driven by softer services prices as businesses face demand constraints. Disinflation is now reaching the services sector, which is a positive sign for monetary policy and gives room for more rate cuts in the coming quarters
Romania’s economy delivered a mild upside surprise in the third quarter. The flash estimate points to 1.6% annual growth, above our expectations, although it still contracted by 0.2% versus the previous quarter. Taken together, after nine months of 2025, the economy is 0.8% above the same period of 2024
This more than compensates for August’s fall, confirming that summer data has to be interpreted with a pinch of salt. Italy's industrial stagnation is not over yet, but the picture might improve marginally over the fourth quarter
EUR/USD continues to grind lower as it has for the last week. Rate differentials have not moved much at all this week and in fact have been mildly supportive for EUR/USD.
Conditions in manufacturing have deteriorated for the fourth consecutive month, which can undoubtedly be viewed as a negative signal for the economy when looking ahead. Although below the expansionary threshold, the PMI is nowhere near the depressed 2023 levels. Should the hard times continue, an adverse effect on growth in 2026 is a possibility
Italy's October inflation numbers show a marked deceleration. This is very much an energy and fresh food story, against stable core inflation. As we don’t expect an imminent change to the pattern, we're trimming our forecast for average 2025 headline inflation to 1.6%
We doubt markets expect the French prime minister to find a solution by Macron's imposed deadline. With little else to work with, supply pressures might be leading on Wednesday. Overall, euro rates seem well-positioned for now, but over the long term, we see the 10Y swap rate settling at a higher level
Romanian consumers have recently hit the brakes, signalling increased caution. While some of the August slowdown can be attributed to pre-emptive spending ahead of tax hikes, that doesn’t fully explain the drop. We do not expect this steep decline to become the norm, but caution is likely to persist into year-end and early 2026
Unemployment remains near all-time lows as the economy maintains a slow pace of growth amid significant uncertainty. So, despite a small uptick in the unemployment rate, the labour market mainly shows resilience
The RBI has held its repo rate steady at 5.5% as it balances growth and currency risks. It has sharply cut its inflation forecast, but it's cautious about INR weakness. A rate cut in December is a distinct possibility, especially if India can’t improve tariff terms with the US
With all driving factors set to remain in place, we expect inflation in Italy to continue to move within a narrow sub-2% band over the fourth quarter and confirm our forecast for average 2025 inflation at 1.7%
South Korea’s latest fiscal stimulus contributed to improved consumer sentiment and greater growth momentum. But these effects may prove temporary. Even so, the Bank of Korea will stand pat later this week, as it focuses more on housing prices.
Trigger warning: this article contains the greatest puns you'll ever read on this website. Oh, and James Smith's look at the week ahead...
The Polish economy grew by 3.4%YoY in the second quarter, compared to 3.2%YoY in the first quarter. While the flash estimate did not provide a breakdown of growth components, high-frequency indicators suggest continued expansion in the services sector, stagnation in industry, and a contraction in construction
President Trump hinted that Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett and two others are leading the race for the next Fed Chair and might be announced soon after Governor Adriana Kugler’s early exit. We think the dollar would welcome Warsh, but would get hit by Hassett’s nomination. We retain a short-term USD bearish bias as FX has room to catch up with Fed pricing swings.
Bank lending growth accelerated again in June, indicating that global economic uncertainty is not significantly dampening lending at this time
The ECB has kept its policy interest rates on hold and is waiting for the final showdown in US-EU trade negotiations
South Korea’s real GDP rebounded 0.6% in the second quarter, after shrinking in the January-March period, led by consumption and exports. Consumption is expected to take the lead as main growth driver in the second half thanks to supportive macro policies. Yet the timing of a Bank of Korea rate cut depends on housing prices and a trade deal
Today, in addition to monthly data from Poland, the main event is the rate decision of the National Bank of Hungary (NBH). Rates are likely to remain unchanged at 6.50% again, with the focus more on the tone of the press conference. June headline inflation was one-tenth above the NBH forecast, but underlying momentum seems to be seeing some gradual improvement. At the same time, the economy continues to surprise on the downside.
French industrial production fell again in May, reinforcing the likelihood of a contraction in GDP in the second quarter. The outlook for the rest of the year remains bleak
The trade deal between the US and Vietnam boosted oil prices. However, with OPEC+ set to decide on August output levels, the move higher could be short-lived. In addition, 9 July marks the end of the 90-day pause in US reciprocal tariffs, leaving further uncertainty
Rally in most major indices across Europe and the US paused yesterday, as Trump-driven optimism began to sour under the rocky glare of the summer sun. Less-than-ideal news on both the trade and political fronts served as a sharp reminder that all is not rosy—that trade negotiations, and Trump's friendships, can turn into onion soup faster than you can say 'tariff' or 'DOGE.'