Market Focus: European Data Releases, ECB Survey, US FOMC Minutes, and UK Bond Supply
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Today's events and market view
Ahead of Germany’s factory order and industrial production (IP) to be released tomorrow and Friday respectively, IP figures for France and Spain will be published this morning.
Services PMI for Europe this morning are all second readings except for Italy and Spain. A further decline in the services index would undermine the ECB’s hawkish message, with employment and price components of particular interest.
The ECB publishes its monthly consumer survey which includes questions on inflation expectations. The disinflation narrative should receive a boost from Eurozone PPI settling around negative values.
US data consists of factory and durable goods orders. This will be followed by the minutes of the June FOMC meeting, where the Fed’s committee decided not to increase rates for the first time since early 2022. The Fed will be keen for markets to see the hawkish side of that decision and that it heralds a more protracted tightening cycle. The Fed’s dot plot still implies 100bp of cuts in 2024. Fed communication may well chip away at that message next.
Bond supply consists of the UK selling 3Y debt.
