Smelter shutdowns threaten Europe's climate target path
The most recent aluminium smelter shutdown comes at a time when Europe is trying to become more self-sufficient following Russia’s war in Ukraine. The more smelters shut down, the more reliant the region becomes on more expensive imports from more carbon-intensive suppliers, including China and Russia.
European smelters generate three times less CO2 than those in China, where coal is most often used to generate electricity.
Under the European climate target path, EU countries must cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, setting Europe on a path to becoming climate neutral by 2050.
Aluminium is a key component in mobility and transport, buildings, construction, packaging, aerospace, and defence. It is also used in almost all energy generation, transmission, and storage technologies, particularly those that will deliver the energy transition, such as wind and solar power, alternative fuel cells, hydrogen production, high-voltage cables, and batteries.
As a result, Europe’s 2030 energy transition will require four million tonnes of additional aluminium per year, rising to almost five million tonnes in 2040, equivalent to 30% of Europe’s aluminium consumption today, according to European Aluminium.
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The highest growth in terms of absolute demand is expected to come from the transportation sector amid a shift to electric vehicles (EVs). By 2026, aluminium content per vehicle will rise by 12% to meet the needs of future hybrid vehicles and EVs, according to the Aluminium Association.
Aluminium’s usage in batteries and other EV components will double automobile manufacturers’ consumption of aluminium by 2050, according to forecasts from IAI.
Satisfying the increased demand via imports instead of producing in Europe would generate at least an additional 40 million tonnes of CO2 yearly, according to European Aluminium, equivalent to the yearly CO2 emissions of a country like Finland.
Earlier this year, Eurometaux, the European metals industry’s main lobbying group, representing major European producers, including Glencore, Boliden and Aurubis, warned that further long-term financial support is needed to help Europe keep control of raw materials that are crucial to the green-energy transition.
The European Commission is due to publish this week the Critical Raw Materials Act, which will attempt to lessen the dependence on non-democratic states and boost European autonomy to ensure the EU has access to materials needed to meet the bloc’s target of moving to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
The regulation is part of Europe’s answer to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which offers $369bn of subsidies to green-tech manufacturers and has prompted several multibillion-dollar investments into US battery manufacturing.
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