Combine rebounding investment with continued strength in private spending and you have a recipe for stronger economic growth. October's set of data suggests that GDP growth in the fourth quarter is likely to beat the 3.7% year-on-year rate posted in the third. At the same time, inflation is declining, which paves the way for another rate cut in December
With dropping expectations and an only somewhat improving current assessment, the November Ifo index suggests that the German economy remains deeply stuck in stagnation at year-end
We've been here before, but prospects of a peace deal in Ukraine are starting to show in FX. CEE FX is holding last week's gains, and EUR/CHF is now also edging back above 0.93. Lower energy prices should be supportive for the euro. Further progress on peace discussions and potentially a softer Fed Beige Book on Wednesday could see EUR/USD hold 1.1500
The composite PMI remained broadly unchanged in November (52.4 compared to 52.5 in October), which is well above the neutral level of 50. This suggests that growth in the short run remains decent despite significant global headwinds
As negotiations to reach a final Omnibus I proposal have started, we analyse the impact each proposal would have on European banks. Despite the variations, all three proposals suggest a single path towards major scope reductions. This would be a positive for banks no longer required to report on ESG but complicate disclosures for those still in scope
Romania’s economy delivered a mild upside surprise in the third quarter. The flash estimate points to 1.6% annual growth, above our expectations, although it still contracted by 0.2% versus the previous quarter. Taken together, after nine months of 2025, the economy is 0.8% above the same period of 2024
Oil prices managed to edge higher yesterday, despite several bearish data releasesa
The oil market rallied yesterday, boosted by the strength of the refined products market
It has been a mixed week for the dollar, where early-week strength finally eased a little yesterday on indications of softer US jobs data. Yet with the US government shutdown ongoing, we are still in the dark about the true labour market picture. Expect more $ consolidation and focus on regional stories such as soft China trade data and the Canada jobs release
Today's data is more evidence of the small rebound of the German economy after the summer. However, the September increase in exports is too weak to dispel concerns about persistent structural weakness
Oil prices settled lower yesterday with a large increase in US crude oil inventories, while surplus expectations for the global oil market will also be providing some headwinds
Despite good ADP and ISM services data, the USD has corrected lower. With equities re-stabilising, the risks remain of further USD pullbacks after a rally that has exceeded what rate differentials can justify. Today, we see the BoE on hold despite mounting speculation of a pre-Budget cut. Norges Bank is likely to hold too, with low risks of guidance tweaks
It's the expected rebound in industrial production in September. However, it's a rebound which is too weak to mark any turnaround. Instead, even with some cyclical rebound in the making, structural weaknesses will put a lid on German industrial production for a while
Today marks the start of the US Supreme Court hearings regarding the legality of some of the US administration’s tariffs. A ruling is expected before the end of the year
Treasuries are treading water, and really should have performed better on a risk-off Tuesday. But the 10yr seems content at above 4% for now. The 2yr has more open road to trek back down to 3.5%. Wednesday’s refunding announcement should be a box-ticking exercise. The plumbing of the money markets is where all the drama is - keep an eye on it
The ISM manufacturing index suggests that the US industrial sector remains under pressure from weak growth and tariff-related uncertainty. The one consolation is that inflation pressures appear to be easing, but the Fed hawks will want to see broader evidence of this before backing a December rate cut
Oil prices are trading stronger this morning after OPEC+ decided to keep output levels steady over the first quarter of next year. However, this could change given the uncertainty on Russian oil flows following US sanctions
South Korean exports increased in October despite fewer working days due to the Chuseok holiday. US tariffs had a clear negative effect, but robust semiconductor and vessel exports offset the impact. With the trade agreement concluded, improved export conditions are expected to support growth in 2026
Improving eurozone hard data and a stable ECB mean the EUR swap curve should steepen from here. The complexity of estimating Dutch pension reform flows doesn't help the case for a steeper 10s30s. In the US, Treasuries are trading heavily in post-FOMC, and look like they can attempt to continue to do so
US consumer confidence dipped again and remains on par with where we were during the pandemic. Concerns about the potential for tariff-induced price rises, a rapidly cooling jobs market and uncertainties over wealth are all having an influence and point to subdued consumer spending growth over the coming months
A revision of the eurozone's long-term growth outlook would have a significant upward impact on euro swap rates. This is unlikely to happen overnight, but in our view should build gradually over time. In the US, it's a steady state along the coupon curve. But there’s lots going on in the pipes of the money markets as repo tightness persists
Positive developments in US-China trade talks over the weekend provided a boost to risk assets, including large parts of the commodities complex
The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark rate steady at 2.5%, signaling a shift toward a less dovish policy stance. For the second consecutive meeting, one member dissented, while a growing number prioritised financial market stability over economic growth
Japanese exports recovered mostly in line with market expectations. We cautiously expect US-bound exports to stabilise after the recent trade deal. Stronger-than-expected imports indicate continued investment in AI and semiconductors, supporting growth in the fourth quarter
Poland's industrial output surprised positively in September, but the outlook is uncertain as some auto producers plan plant closures and production pauses by the end of 2025. Wage growth in services is easing; employment is falling amid labour shortages. Policymakers may await more data before resuming rate cuts in 2026
Our economics team expects Wednesday's UK services inflation to undershoot the BoE's projection with a 4.6% read, which is also below the 4.8% consensus. That can modestly move the needle to the dovish side in the GBP swap curve and weigh on the pound this week.
Global bond yields are pushing lower amidst a broader flight to safety, with Gilts leading the way. Even now, Gilt yields still seem high, driven by a hawkish Bank of England and a material risk premium. Gilt swap spreads were more sensitive to French turmoil than to dynamics in US Treasuries or Bunds, but this should change with more budget certainty
Some of the best performing currencies in the CEE region have started to hand back some of their gains as markets question whether central banks will have to turn more dovish. That's particularly been the case in Hungary. However, our call is that rate cuts are delayed, and the forint can continue to enjoy carry trade interest. CZK and ZAR should also do well
Switzerland’s economy is under significant pressure due to the imposition of US tariffs on Swiss exports. As such, we have revised down our GDP growth forecasts
The tone of NBP President Adam Glapinski’s press conference suggested openness to another interest rate cut in November. The new inflation projection, and macroeconomic data published before the November Council meeting will be important in shaping this decision. We assess the probability of another cut in November to be well above 50%
Foreign tech companies have issued more euro-denominated debt than expected so far in 2025, driven by attractive funding costs in euro markets. This points to European strength. Our expectations for 2025 debt issuance were initially lower as US tech firms can fund their heavy capital expenditure programme from cash flows
The US electric vehicle market is set to see a correction following the end of federal subsidies. The policy turnaround delays the uptake – but ultimately, we don't think it will change the future or the long-term direction of travel
The CIS region remains resilient amid global uncertainty, with growth outperforming expectations despite persistent inflation and external pressures. Fundamental improvements and ratings upgrades are supportive of sovereign credit in the region, while we expect further steady issuance
3 October, 2025, Barcelona, Spain – FinancialMarkets.media, the specialist marketing media agency for financial brands, has announced the launch of its new sports sponsorship offering, giving clients access to one of the most powerful and measurable forms of global brand building.
GenAI use is ramping up fast, offering insights into how people engage with it. OpenAI recently published a deep dive into ChatGPT usage. The findings show that while users apply it to boost productivity, usage patterns vary across demographics – raising questions about who benefits the most from this technology
Headline inflation has increased to its highest level since the spring, but other German macro data published today suggests that inflation will not be the economy's biggest problem in the months ahead
The US Dollar has been rallying steadily since its pre-FOMC lows, with Powell’s not-so-dovish speech last week marking the start of a V-shape reversal from the sharp pre-meeting downfall.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept its policy rate unchanged at 0%, as inflation remains very low and economic risks mount. Despite a weakening growth outlook, the SNB is avoiding further easing for now
Following a technology-fueled surge on Wall Street, Asian stocks were trading near a record high, although shares in Hong Kong and mainland China declined. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pulled back from its earlier highs to trade mostly flat. Stocks in Hong Kong fell 1% as the city was dealing with its most severe typhoon since 2018.
Even without ground control calling, German optimism has been brought down by a mix of US tariffs, a stronger euro and the political inability to combine fiscal stimulus with growth-enhancing reforms
As the USD shed some post-Fed gains at the start of this week, the Canadian dollar again stood out as an underperformer. The worsening jobs market, trade uncertainty and possibility of more Bank of Canada rate cuts should keep weighing on CAD against the rest of G10, in our view. Today is PMI day, with central bank speakers (including Powell) still in focus
Have you been wondering what emoji best describes this week's Fed meeting? James Smith is doing his best to win over Gen-Z again this week, as he looks back at a curious US interest rate decision and weighs up Europe's fiscal woes. All that and more in our guide to the week ahead
All eyes are on tonight's Fed meeting, where a 25bp rate cut is widely expected. The dollar has been selling off ahead of this event, but there are a few risks. For example, we could see short-dated US rates back up a little and the dollar get a brief bid if the Fed Dot Plots continues to show just 50bp of rate cuts this year compared to the 70bp now priced
Regional sustainable finance markets outlooks show contrasts this year. Strong momentum is observed in Asia Pacific (APAC) and Eastern Europe, while policy swings and uncertainty have led to challenges in the Americas and the rest of Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA)
The eurozone's trade balance edged up slightly in July, driven mainly by a drop in imports, while exports also declined modestly. Excluding the energy crisis period, this marks one of the smallest trade surpluses in the past decade
It has been a rocky year for the global car industry – and it's not over yet. US new car sales are slowing, and the European market remains sluggish, but strong demand in China and South America means we still expect slightly higher global annual sales. Meanwhile, carmakers are navigating tough competition on multiple fronts
Artificial intelligence offers us a whole host of new opportunities – but with its usage on the rise, concerns surrounding safety also appear to be growing rapidly. An increasing number of incidents is now reinforcing the need for harmonised ethical and regulatory standards
The decline in headline inflation to 2.8% YoY in August and further easing of core inflation would likely allow policymakers to cut rates by 25bp in September, but highly expansionary fiscal policy is expected to prompt a cautious approach ahead. Rate setters may pause in October and return to the rate cut discussion in November
The just-released minutes of the ECB’s July meeting show that the central bank entered the summer break with a strong feeling that the job was done and that the bar had been set high for another rate cut. Still, this wait-and-see stance had at least a touch of an easing bias
August confidence indicators paint a picture of economic inertia, with growth momentum still concentrated in the services sector
The thing about the Lisa Cook affair is it's laced with legal grey. We make the simple apolitical assumption, from a market’s perspective, that Ms Cook will be replaced. Tough to undo what's been done, and an extrapolation of these circumstances result in a steeper curve from both ends. The front end does not care. The back end cares a lot (or at least should)
French politics is injecting uncertainty into eurozone bond markets, but the spread widening remains more confined to French bonds for now. Long-end yields globally have felt supply and fiscal pressures, yet the challenge to central bank independence puts a unique focus on the US curve
Oil prices came under pressure as US secondary tariffs on India come into effect, taking the total levy to 50%
Eurozone economic data for the first half of the year has been distorted by US tariffs.
The Market is going wild from Powell's speech, interpreted as largely dovish! In case you missed it, you can access the text and a review of his live speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on this page:
The ongoing improvement in business sentiment reflects the strong belief in the healing nature of fiscal stimulus
The dollar is drifting higher ahead of a key speech from Fed Chair Powell today. Driving that has been some slightly better business confidence data, questioning whether the Fed needs to cut in September. We doubt the dollar has to rally too much further. Behind the scenes, it seems that foreign central banks are quietly leaving the US Treasury market
In September 2019, the system creaked as the Fed had gone too far with bank reserves reduction. We're facing a similar challenge in the coming months as the Treasury replenishes its cash buffer. We identify a range from $2.5tr to $3tr within which bank reserves can settle, likely at the upper end. And if there's an issue, the Fed can always rebuild them
Earlier in August, we published our monthly FX update. That was centred around the view that the last line of defence for the dollar – a resilient jobs market – had started to capitulate with large payrolls revisions. In this note, we discuss our latest thinking and why we are looking for 1.20+ levels through 2026
US Treasuries traded heavy on Monday, on a day of complexities and different cross winds that makes interpretation tough. Bunds remain a good safe asset to hide for any US-driven turmoil, which can help keep yields close to swaps. Whilst we still see Bunds underperform swaps due to supply pressures, the room is more limited since 'Liberation Day'
On a day when all eyes are once again on the war in Ukraine and with another crucial meeting later today at the White House, just-released trade data serves as a good reminder of the adverse effects of the ongoing trade tensions.
Polish headline inflation has been confirmed at 3.1% YoY in July, from 4.1% YoY in June, as the effect of the partial unfreeze of energy prices in mid-2024 died out. With inflation within the tolerance band of the National Bank of Poland's target (2.5%, +/- 1ppt), the central bank now has room to continue its monetary easing cycle
We expect a hold by the ECB on Thursday, but there are risks of a modest dovish tilt given tariff uncertainty and the euro’s recent strength. Ultimately, Fed decisions will drive EUR/USD more than the ECB’s, but signs of discontent with levels above 1.20 can cap the euro’s short-term gains. Expect rates to be particularly sensitive to trade comments
Since reaching a record high above $3,500/oz in April, the gold rally has stalled, and is need of a fresh catalyst to help push it higher
Yesterday's US inflation data was... mixed. Headline CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, exactly as expected, pushing the annual rate up to 2.7% from 2.4% in the prior month. But core inflation came in softer than anticipated, briefly lifting market sentiment.
Romania has launched a bold fiscal overhaul to fix its record deficit by raising taxes and curbing spending. The short-term hit to growth and inflation will be significant, but the plan could also restore stability, unlock EU funds, and rebuild investor trust
The outlook for the chemicals sector in the Netherlands remains bleak. American import tariffs have impacted a sizeable portion of production, while structural issues such as global overcapacity and declining competitiveness continue to constrain its growth potential
Industrial data from May suggests that there is more to German industry than just US front-loading. It's too early to give the all-clear, but signs of at least a cyclical rebound, albeit from low levels, are increasing
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) surprised the market by cutting the National Bank of Poland's (NBP) interest rates by 25 basis points. In our view, this decision is fully justified by the inflation prospects and the weak economic outlook. We expect further rate cuts after the summer holidays
Eurozone unemployment rate edges up in May, but remains at historic low. The unemployment rate increased from 6.2% to 6.3% in May. This increase was mainly driven by a jump in unemployment in Italy, but overall, the labour market remains strong with significant shortages across the eurozone
Recent labour market data shows that demographic decline and voluntary exits are key factors to watch out for. Meanwhile, gloomy macroeconomic conditions are leading to redundancies and reduced employee bargaining power, potentially limiting future wage growth
US strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran: What it means for macro and markets. While the broader impact of the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities remains uncertain, markets have so far responded with caution. What is clear, however, is that the strikes are likely to heighten economic uncertainty and put upward pressure on oil prices.
iFX EXPO LATAM 2025 has officially concluded its second successful edition in Mexico, reinforcing its commitment to growing within the LATAM region and firmly establishing itself as the largest and most influential online trading and fintech event in Latin America.
New York, NY - Hola Prime has presented a major enhancement to its compliance framework, reinforcing its commitment to transparency and accountability in proprietary trading. As regulators and market participants call for greater compliance, Hola Prime has implemented a robust monitoring system to uphold fair and ethical trading practices.
The #1 B2B & B2C online trading expo in the region is returning for a second edition.
Trump Turns to Bonds, Vape Firms Shift Tactics After FDA Crackdown, and DeepSeek Races Ahead with New AI Model
Rates Spark: The glass half empty trade. The drivers of Doge, Bessent and SLR have been added to in the guise of weaker consumer confidence and a ratchet down in expectations for the terminal rate. This market is now considering the possible downsides ahead. Can it last? Well yes for a bit. But we are constrained to the downside for yields, until or unless we seriously contemplate a recession of sorts
The #1 B2B & B2C online trading expo in LATAM is back for another unmissable edition.
