Oil Boosts NOK as USD Weakens; Markets Watch China Tariffs and PMIs

Hopes for a swift resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have proven vain. Discussions between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy yielded no breakthrough, with market expectations for a 2025 ceasefire dropping from around 40% to below 25%.

Core Inflation Stable as Bank of Canada and Riksbank Signal Dovish Bias

A mild miss in last week’s July inflation figures provided a bit of support for the Canadian dollar, which posted weekly gains against most other G10 currencies.

Swiss Growth Slows Amid Trade Tensions; AUD and NZD Diverge on Central Bank Moves

The Swiss franc recovered some of its losses last week. Economic data continues to point to disruptions from Trump’s upending of global trade. After a jump in June, real exports sank in July (-2.7% MoM). US-bound exports rose 1.1%, as buyers raced against time to avoid paying steep levies on products such as watches or machinery.

Euro Gains Amid Stable ECB Policy, BoE Inflation Surprises, and Hawkish BoJ

Eurozone economic data for the first half of the year has been distorted by US tariffs.

Fed Independence in Question as Markets Eye Inflation Data

Global Markets Await Jackson Hole: Bonds Slide, Currencies Diverge, Central Banks in Focus

ile stocks continue to hit new highs, the worldwide sell-off in long-term government bonds is gathering pace. Rates actually rose more in nearly every G10 country than they did in the US last week, which certainly contributed to dollar weakness.

Fed Repricing and Trade Uncertainty Set the Stage for BoE

The first four days of the week were characterised by a broad dollar rally, as a solid GDP report, the signing of trade deals and a hawkish Fed acted to chip away at the greenback’s risk premium.

G10 FX Outlook: Trade Deals Offer Relief, but Central Banks and Data Take Center Stage

The agreement on the long-awaited US-Japan trade deal should be good news for the yen. The deal will see 15% tariffs imposed on most sectors, including the country's all-important autos industry, lower than the 25% recently threatened by the White House.

Euro Supported by Trade Optimism and Hawkish ECB Hints, While UK Data Disappoints

Reports that the EU was close to striking a framework trade deal with the US kept the common currency well bid last week.

Trade Breakthroughs Ease Global Tensions Ahead of Pivotal Fed Meeting

The dollar traded lower last week as market participants became increasingly jittery ahead of Friday’s looming tariffs deadline

Fed Steady, ECB Silent, BoE Stuck: Monetary Policy in a World of Uncertainty

The stabilisation of the US dollar hit an air pocket last week after reports suggested that President Trump was on the cusp of firing Fed chair Powell.

Markets Brace for Autumn Austerity as UK Finances Fray

The dollar benefited from the resulting backup in short-term rates and managed to end near the middle of the G10 performance table for the week. The price action suggests to us that current levels price in a lot of bad news for the US dollar, which has had the worst first half of the year since Nixon took the currency off the gold standard in 1973.

Dollar Strengthens Amid Geopolitical Tensions as Markets Look Past Soft Macro Data

The Israel-Iran war is set to dominate currency trading after the US intervened over the weekend by bombing Iran’s main nuclear facilities.

Markets Juggle Fed Outlook and Geopolitical Tensions as Dollar Wavers

Israel’s decision to bomb Iran in order to stop its nuclear programme threw a lifeline to the dollar last week, which had been selling off amid a much lower than expected inflation print and worries about the US economy.

Dollar Weakens as Yen Surges Amid Policy Shifts

For the first time in a while, most of the major currencies traded in tight ranges last week, with the exception of the yen, which continues to rally amid rising expectations for a faster pace of Bank of Japan policy