Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 16
Today marked another strange session with stock indexes fluctuating significantly before closing the week virtually unchanged.
Global markets are trading in a slightly nervous fashion as they brace themselves for a potential correction in US tech stocks. So far, the correction has been modest compared to the 25% fall in bitcoin, but events over the next 24 hours will have a say in whether moves extend. We'll have FOMC minutes, Nvidia earnings and the September jobs reporta
Seemingly defying a backdrop of high uncertainty even by the ECB’s own accounts, volatility in markets continues to decline. On the surface, it may look like complacency. But a perceived limited upside in rates, and a potentially bigger downside if they were to actually start falling, also gives spreads their backing
Foreign tech companies have issued more euro-denominated debt than expected so far in 2025, driven by attractive funding costs in euro markets. This points to European strength. Our expectations for 2025 debt issuance were initially lower as US tech firms can fund their heavy capital expenditure programme from cash flows
Latest round of tariffs will come into effect on 5 and 9 April. Donald Trump announced the imposition of a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the United States from 5 April. For countries with which the United States has the biggest trade deficits, higher, individualised reciprocal tariffs will take effect on 9 April.
At 0.76 (vs 0.25 last week) our Risk Index has jumped decisively back into risk-averse territory. The Index bounced off its 100-day moving average suggesting a sustained reduction in investor risk appetite.
Market sentiment was rather positive ahead of the FOMC statement, with European equities rising and € credit spreads tightening. In the wake of the monetary policy decision, equities rose and bond yields eased further after Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve saw no need for drastic action in the face of Donald Trump's trade war.
Further escalation yesterday in the trade war between the United States and Canada. In response to the announcement of a Canadian surcharge on electricity exported to the United States, Donald Trump retaliated by raising tariffs on aluminium and steel by a further 25% to 50%, although he later retracted this decision.
Busy end of week with European defence push, ECB monetary policy decision, US tariff pause and NFP. No let-up in the news flow as the week draws to an end. Friday will be marked by the publication of the February Employment Situation Report, with our US economists expecting 180 thousand job creations (see NFP Preview), while Thursday’s session was punctuated by an abundant news flow:
