credit spreads

North American Market Wrap – January 16: Rangebound Trading Amid Weekend Geopolitical Risk

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 16

Today marked another strange session with stock indexes fluctuating significantly before closing the week virtually unchanged.

De-leveraging Lifts the Dollar as Markets Brace for Fed Signals and Tech Volatility

Global markets are trading in a slightly nervous fashion as they brace themselves for a potential correction in US tech stocks. So far, the correction has been modest compared to the 25% fall in bitcoin, but events over the next 24 hours will have a say in whether moves extend. We'll have FOMC minutes, Nvidia earnings and the September jobs reporta

Volatility Collapse Boosts Carry Trades as ECB Bias Remains Toward Easing

Seemingly defying a backdrop of high uncertainty even by the ECB’s own accounts, volatility in markets continues to decline. On the surface, it may look like complacency. But a perceived limited upside in rates, and a potentially bigger downside if they were to actually start falling, also gives spreads their backing

EUR Corporate Bond Supply Surges Toward €400bn in 2025, Driven by TMT and Reverse Yankee Issuance

Foreign tech companies have issued more euro-denominated debt than expected so far in 2025, driven by attractive funding costs in euro markets. This points to European strength. Our expectations for 2025 debt issuance were initially lower as US tech firms can fund their heavy capital expenditure programme from cash flows

Global Markets Rattle as US Reciprocal Tariffs Take Effect

Latest round of tariffs will come into effect on 5 and 9 April. Donald Trump announced the imposition of a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the United States from 5 April. For countries with which the United States has the biggest trade deficits, higher, individualised reciprocal tariffs will take effect on 9 April.

Investor Nerves on Edge as Trump’s Tariff Bombshell Looms

At 0.76 (vs 0.25 last week) our Risk Index has jumped decisively back into risk-averse territory. The Index bounced off its 100-day moving average suggesting a sustained reduction in investor risk appetite.

Market sentiment steady post-Fed; focus shifts to BoE as Powell calms recession fears

Market sentiment was rather positive ahead of the FOMC statement, with European equities rising and € credit spreads tightening. In the wake of the monetary policy decision, equities rose and bond yields eased further after Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve saw no need for drastic action in the face of Donald Trump's trade war.

US-Canada Trade War Escalates, Weakening USD and Impacting Global Markets

Further escalation yesterday in the trade war between the United States and Canada. In response to the announcement of a Canadian surcharge on electricity exported to the United States, Donald Trump retaliated by raising tariffs on aluminium and steel by a further 25% to 50%, although he later retracted this decision. 

Market Crossroads: ECB’s Hawkish Easing, European Defense Shift, and Tariff Relief Dynamics

Busy end of week with European defence push, ECB monetary policy decision, US tariff pause and NFP. No let-up in the news flow as the week draws to an end. Friday will be marked by the publication of the February Employment Situation Report, with our US economists expecting 180 thousand job creations (see NFP Preview), while Thursday’s session was punctuated by an abundant news flow: