USD Continued On Its Strengthening Path (EUR/USD), BoE Hiked Interest Rates By 75bps (EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD)
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Summary:
- The US Dollar continued to strengthen overall on Thursday.
- Another action by the Bank of England has the Pound taking a beating.
- Sterling dropped significantly, including against the Australian Dollar.
Euro is lacking monetary backing
The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. On Thursday, the US Dollar continued to strengthen overall as a result of the US Federal Reserve's decision to change its monetary policy earlier in the day. This made the Euro continue to struggle against the US Dollar.
In terms of interest rates, the markets received the well-predicted three-quarter point hike that was punctually provided. However, there were a lot of people hoping that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would formally reverse his aggressive monetary tightening policy. In the end, he refrained from doing so and instead warned the markets that if inflation is to be contained, borrowing prices may still need to increase significantly.
This weakness was forewarned by Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, that interest rates in the Eurozone must also continue to rise. Well, may she do so, with the currency bloc's consumer price inflation hitting historic highs.
The Euro lacks monetary backing in the global market because markets anticipate more of the same. It lacks fundamental support as well, with a cost-of-living issue that is eroding consumer confidence throughout the Eurozone. Of course, Germany is the center of the currency zone. As the conflict in Ukraine drags on, it is now struggling with the necessity to wean itself off of its dependency on Russian gas. As a result, the third quarter of this year saw a significant slowdown in Eurozone growth.
EUR/USD Price Chart
GBP declines in the wake of BoE interest rate decision
The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Another action by the Bank of England has the Pound taking a beating. The Bank of England increased the Bank Rate by 75 basis points to 3.0%, but it made it apparent that a jump to 5.0% or above was not likely, sending the Pound into a reflexive sell-off. According to a statement issued by the Bank, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decisively voted 7-2 to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, but this exceptionally significant increase appears to be an outlier. However, significantly for the foreign exchange markets, the Bank won't be delivering as many rate increases as investors anticipate.
The Bank's decision and financial calculations are based on market expectations that the Bank Rate will increase to a top of 5.25% in 2023, which is why the Pound has reacted in this way. In such a case, the Bank's economists predict that inflation will return to zero in three years, significantly below the target of two percent.
EUR/GBP Price Chart
AUD beating the GBP
The Bank of England (BoE) appeared to rule out the possibility of indulging in derivative market pricing, hinting that Bank Rate could reach five percent in the months ahead, which hampered the Pound to Australian Dollar rate and put it at risk of further losses in the last session of the week.
The Bank of England announced its largest increase in the Bank Rate in decades on Thursday, but said financial markets were barking up the wrong tree when they bet that borrowing costs could still rise significantly further down the road. As a result, sterling dropped significantly, including against the Australian Dollar.
GBP/AUD Price Chart
Sources: dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com, finance.yahoo.com
