Ukraine's Grain Harvest Surges, Export Challenges Persist Amid Black Sea Grain Initiative Suspension

Agriculture–Ukraine's grain harvest grows

The latest data from Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry show that the domestic grain harvest for the season rose 14% year-on-year to 29.8mt as of 22 September. The Ministry said that the corn crop stood at 182.5kt (twice as much as the previous season), while the wheat harvest rose 16% YoY to 22.2mt. However, Ukraine is having difficulty in exporting this supply following the suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. In a separate data release, Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry reported that total grain exports for the season fell 17% YoY to 6mt as of 22 September. These shipments include 2.5mt (-39% YoY) of corn and 2.9mt (-19% YoY) of wheat.

China is planning to release 1.3mt of sugar from its reserves, primarily to increase domestic supplies and stabilise prices. Extreme weather conditions have reduced domestic output, and this has come at a time of high global prices.

The latest CFTC data shows that money managers increased their net short in CBOT corn by 9,906 lots to 144,815 lots as of 19 September. Meanwhile, speculators reduced their net long in CBOT soybeans by 27,983 lots to 45,832 lots. The move was fueled by a drop in gross longs. Finally, speculators increased their net short in CBOT wheat by 12,666 lots to 96,805 lots.