UK recession could deteriorate with tighter monetary and fiscal policy, the US dollar suffered another setback

Summary:

• Experts foresee more short-term weakness for the Canadian Dollar against the Pound
• The bullish trend in the USD suffered yet another setback on Tuesday.
• The UK recession will deteriorate with tighter monetary and fiscal policy.

Euro recovery may be strong

The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. After a support bounce failed, the bullish trend in the USD suffered yet another setback yesterday. The currency was driven lower by sellers to make a new monthly bottom, but support quickly appeared around the same level that had been in play a few weeks before and served as a target for a double top formation at 109.62. There are a number of levels close below that swing as well, which may allow for a support bounce before the release of the CPI data tomorrow.

From some perspectives, the major question is whether a stronger recovery can be seen in the Euro. Over the past nine months, the euro has been battered and bruised, but as of my initial inspection in October, the pain was beginning to subside and a deeper downturn was beginning.

✕ EUR/USD Price Chart

GBP down against its peers

The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The UK recession will deteriorate with tighter monetary and fiscal policy, according to Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets for EMEA at MUFG. The recent Bank of England policy update has strengthened the foreign exchange strategists' belief in this trade, according to a new note. They are selling pound sterling against the euro.

On Thursday, November 3, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 75 basis points, but warned that if it followed market expectations and pushed through even more increases, the UK economy would enter a recession that would last eight quarters. As a result, the Pound dropped against all of its peers. The market interpreted this as a message from the Bank that it would not hike rates as much as anticipated going into the policy update, which caused expectations to be reassessed and caused the Pound to fall on the day.

✕ EUR/GBP Price Chart

CAD weakness foreseen

National Bank of Canada (NBC) experts foresee more short-term weakness for the Canadian Dollar against the Pound, Dollar, and Euro but a robust recovery through 2023. Up until the second half of the year, when oil prices began to decline from their post-invasion levels and the Bank of Canada slowed down its rate-hiking acceleration, the Canadian Dollar was one of the best-performing currencies in 2022.

✕ GBP/CAD Price Chart

Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com