Need to know 

The ECB rose its key rate to 1.5% from 0.75% and signaled it is making progress in the fight against inflation. Officials dropped a reference to hikes continuing for "several meetings," while saying they expect further action. Christine Lagarde emphasized that more increases were on the way: "We still have ground to cover." Money markets pared tightening wagers by as much as 20 bps, and European stocks erased losses. The US economy grew 2.6% on an annualized basis last quarter after two declines in a row, beating consensus as personal consumption rose more than forecast. The GDP report showed foreboding signs, as growth was almost entirely driven by trade, and residential housing investment plunged. As such, treasuries yields extended their fall, with 10-year yield pushing below 4%. The dollar was mostly higher, though the yen was barely up ahead of the BOJ meeting. Oil advanced and gold retreated. Asia-Pacific's equity futures are mostly in the red.

The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) & S&P 500 (US500.I) ended 1.6% and 0.6% lower, while the Dow Jones lifts, boosted by McDonald’s

The US major indices fell on Thursday from continued weaker than expected earnings carnage with Facebook (META) falling 25%. In mega caps, Amazon (AMZN) was leading the losses, falling 4.1% on projecting slower growth and cutting its spending in the face of economic uncertainty, falling 13% after hours. Apple (AAPL) shares fell 3% on reporting weaker than expected iPhone and services sales in its latest quarter, however it gave an otherwise somewhat upbeat report, noting record sales spurred its active base of devices to hit an all-time high. Post market, Apple shares trade 0.4% higher. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones 30 blue-chip index ended 0.6% up on Thursday, supported by recession-stalwart McDonald’s (MCD) shares rising 3.3% on reporting sales that well surpassed analysts’ estimates, despite inflationary pressures. McDonald’s results were boosted by McRib sales, with the CEO saying they are “the GOAT of sandwiches on our menu,” using the acronym for greatest of all time. The fast-food chain will offer McRib nationwide in the US from the end of this month. Oct. 31. Boeing (BA) shares moved up 4.5% with the company releasing a bullish 20-year forecast for China’s commercial jet market, saying China will need to double its fleet in two decades and that China will be a major driver of Boeing sales. Boeing expects China to need 8,485 new passenger and freighter planes valued at $1.5 trillion through 2041.  

Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) climbs above $89, while iron ore (SOCA) falls to its lowest level since 2020

Oil is trading higher for the third day, on tightness and heavy worry about the price of fuel products over the coming months as the northern hemisphere heads to winter. WTI climbed above $89 with US data showing an economic rebound last quarter. US natural gas futures steadied after the EIA reported stockpiles rose last week. European gas prices advanced. It’s also really important to note, tight diesel markets are taking the main stage at the moment, which you can read more on from our head of commodity strategy, just click here. As for other commodities, copper fell 0.7%, while iron ore (SCOA, SCOX2) fell 0.2% to $81.55, which is its lowest level since May 2020 on concerns that the iron ore market could be oversupplied. Yesterday Fortescue Metals (FMG) affirmed extra production will come to the market before March, (instead of June), with investors worried there is not enough demand from China. Most other commodities were lower, including Wheat and Corn while Cocoa rose 1.6% 

Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) falls 0.6% on Friday, but tracks 2% higher this week, supported by commodity stocks. Macquarie beats forecasts 

After the Aussie share market rose for four straight sessions putting on 2.5% Monday to Thursday supported by commodity stocks, including lithium, gold stocks and agricultural stocks, today’s focus is on tech stock carnage, following the Wall Street sell off. Brainchip (BRN) is down 15%. While iron ore shares are lower, with Fortescue (FMG) trading 7% lower after noting that its increasing its spending, while its margins are tightening. Plus Fortescue is ramping up production, at a time when iron ore demand is limited. On the upside, Macquarie Group (MGQ) shares trade up 3.5% after reporting profit that beat forecasts with market volatility buoying its commodities and global markets business. Macquarie’s net income for the six months to Sept. 30 rose to A$2.31 billion ($1.49 billion), up from A$2.04 billion in the prior year. That exceeded the A$2.15 billion average estimate of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Elsewhere, oil stocks are higher with the WTI price cleared $89, with Viva Energy (VEA) up the most in energy, up 1.6%.

What to consider

Markets, businesses, commodities with high exposure to China see heavy selling this week. Will it continue?  

Assets with exposure to China are being heavily penalized as it seems investors are realigning their portfolios somewhat with the priorities of President Xi his policy on stronger state control over the economy and markets, which look set to continue unchallenged for years. The confirmation was made on Sunday and across the week, Hong Kong’s Heng Seng fell 7.5%, and the iron ore (SCOA, SCOX2) price fell to 15% $79.60 its lowest level since 2020 on concerns that the biggest iron ore consumer, China will further slow demand, all while iron ore seems oversupplied. The biggest pure play iron ore company in the southern hemisphere, Fortescue (FMG) shares fell almost 12% this week, as a result. Plus Fortescue company affirmed it is increasing its spending, while its margins are tightening. Fortescue plans to ramp up iron ore production at its expanded facility in March, instead of June, which will likely further push the iron ore market into greater oversupply.

Australian exports trade prices stumble, imports prices rise

Australian exports prices fell last quarter, but less than expected, falling 3.6% vs the 7% fall consensus forecast. That said, export prices are still up 25.9% YoY. The quarterly drop in prices was driven by the fall in iron ore demand from China, and the drop in coal prices, as global steel demand weakens. That said, Australian gas and crude export prices rose amid surging global demand particularly from Europe. And lithium prices rose markedly, boosted by global electric vehicle sales. Inversely, Australian import prices rose more than expected, up 3%, vs the 0.9% consensus forecast. What contributed to this was price of imports of sodium hydroxide (used in bauxite refining) rose, while the price of importing plastics rose, coinciding with higher energy prices. All in all, import prices to Australia are up 19.3% YoY.