The Double-Digit Inflation In The Eurozone Is Here! (European CPI)

After a hot US inflation report, the focus shifts in the coming week on the inflation result in the euro zone. The figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. This reading is specific because we see the results for the euro area and not for the whole union.

Previous data

Inflation has been in an upward trend since the beginning of the year. At first, it went down a tenth of a percent. March grew rapidly by 1.7%, largely due to the start of the war in Ukraine. Later it increased successively, until in August it exceeded the threshold of 9.0%.

The euro area annual inflation rate was 9.1% in August 2022, up from 8.9% in July. A year earlier, the rate was 3.0%. European Union annual inflation was 10.1% in August 2022, up from 9.8% in July.

The result for the European Union was higher than for the euro area, because in the union there are more countries that have an impact on the final result.

The lowest annual rates were registered in France (6.6%), Malta (7.0%) and Finland (7.9%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Estonia (25.2%), Latvia (21.4%) and Lithuania (21.1%).

We can observe that the highest inflation results appeared in the countries of Eastern Europe, especially Baltic countries. These countries are closest to Russia and Ukraine, where war is currently being fought, and economically they will suffer the most from it, including high inflation.

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Source: eruostat.eu

Forecast

In the euro area, inflation is expected to reach 10.0%

Due to the tense situation on the European gas markets, the experts also maintain their forecast of a recession in the euro area. However, the economic slowdown is supposed to be mild.

In August, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from energy. It is forecasted that the last quarter of this year will be energy-hard for Europe. For this reason, we can assume that it is the energy sector that will play an important role in the rise in inflation.

The price increase in this sector will be significant. According to Eurostat on its Twitter account, energy prices increased by + 40.8%.

Another sector that will see significant growth is food, alcohol & tobacco + 11.8%. The prices of many commodities - crucially including food - have also been rising ever since COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns were first introduced two years ago, straining global supply chains, leaving crops to rot, and causing panic-buying in supermarkets.

The war in Ukraine again dramatically worsened the outlook, as Russia and Ukraine account for nearly a third of global wheat and barley, and two-thirds of the world's exports of sunflower oil used for cooking.

The smallest increase will be in other goods + 5.6% and services + 4.3%.

 

Euro area #inflation up to 10.0% in September 2022: energy +40.8%, food, alcohol & tobacco +11.8%, other goods +5.6%, services +4.3% - flash estimate https://t.co/6PNYzrCwCS pic.twitter.com/NlnZGeoewp

— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) September 30, 2022

In the euro area, Estonia will still have the highest inflation (24.2%) and the lowest in France (6.2%). As we can see, the prospects for European economies are bleak. Moreover, with Europe driving up prices, gas is becoming too expensive in other parts of the world.