Revised Sugar Market Outlook: ISO Cuts Global Deficit Estimate Amidst Increased Production Forecasts"

Agriculture – ISO cuts global sugar deficit estimate

In its latest report, the International Sugar Organization revised its 2023/24 global sugar deficit estimate to 335kt, less than the previous deficit forecast of 2.1mt. The revision reflects expectations of higher production from Brazil (estimated to rise from 38mt to 43mt). As a result, global production estimates were increased by 4.9mt to 179.9mt, whilst consumption estimates were also revised up from 177mt to 180.2mt for 2023/24.

Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry reported that total grain exports for the season fell 30% YoY to a total of 11mt as of 15 November. These shipments include 4.9mt (-41% YoY) of corn and 5.2mt (-12% YoY) of wheat. Exports through the Black Sea port route continue to remain impacted following a recent Russian missile attack on a civilian vessel at Odesa port last week.

France’s Agriculture Ministry estimated French soft wheat inventories for the 2023/24 season at 3.1mt, higher than the previous month’s estimate of 2.8mt. If realized, this would be the highest inventory level since the 2017/18 season. Soft wheat exports are seen at 17mt, down from earlier estimates of 17.3mt. As for corn, stockpile estimates were also increased from 1.64mt to 1.86mt.