Navigating the Kiwi Dollar: Elections and RBNZ's Disinflation Gamble

How elections and the RBNZ disinflation gamble can steer the Kiwi dollar

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to keep rates on hold this week while awaiting new data and given the pre-election environment. The RBNZ’s assumptions on disinflation are quite optimistic, and there are risks of a November hike. Polls suggest a National-led coalition may win: NZD might benefit from a promised change in the RBNZ remit.

 

Growth and housing outlook not as bad as expected

This week’s RBNZ announcement is widely expected to see another hold by New Zealand policymakers. A key reason is that the Bank still hasn’t seen the third-quarter inflation and jobs data, which will be released on the 16th and 31st of October, respectively.

The New Zealand data calendar hasn’t, however, been totally quiet since the August RBNZ meeting. Growth figures were quite surprising: showing activity rebounded 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, more than doubling consensus expectations, and significantly above the 0.5% projected by the RBNZ. Also, a revision of first quarter figures indicated the country had not actually been in a recession into March.  

Growth should cool again in the second half of the year, but the RBNZ’s projections of two negative QoQ GDP readings in the third and fourth quarters by the RBNZ may be overly pessimistic. The Treasury, which has generally been quite more upbeat than the RBNZ, currently forecasts no more negative quarterly GDP reads.  

The house price correction, which has been a major cause for concern and might have argued for less restrictive monetary policy, has eased, largely in line with the revised RBNZ August projections. Latest monthly figures showed the house price index having declined by only 0.2% MoM, and 8.7% year-on-year, reinforcing the view that the worst of the housing correction is past us.

 

Housing correction has cooled off in New Zealand

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