Increase In German Trade Balance | Waiting For Fed’s Decision
Aa
Share
Today, the most important reports for the markets will be from Germany and the USA. In the first half of the day, attention is focused on reports from Germany, but the markets are still awaiting the most important decision of the day - the Fed's decision.
German Trade Balance (Sep)
The trade result report for the biggest waterfall in the euro zone is positive. The current reading shows an increase from 1.2B to 3.7B. This is quite an optimistic result and could be the start of a trend reversal. Moreover, a trade surplus can create employment and economic growth, but may also lead to higher prices and interest rates within an economy.
The reading was very high in April and then dropped drastically. The very low level was maintained for the next two months. After the increase in August, there was another downward trend. This trend was expected to continue this time, the expected level was 0.2B.
Source: investing.com
German Manufacturing PMI
Expectations for Germany Manufacturing were lower than the previous reading, ie the expected level was at 45.7 against the latest reading of 47.8. The current reading of the gauge is 45.5. Another decline was clearly expected, but was 0.2% lower than the forecast level. As you can see, the approaches to this indicator and this sector are projected on a downward trend.
German Unemployment Change
The change in the number of unemployed fell in Germany from 15K to 8K. This is a positive reading in view of the sustained unemployment rate of 5.5%.
As we can read from the data, this number has been decreasing month by month since the sudden increase in the unemployed in June. This is a positive signal for the labor market.
Source: investing.com
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
The first report that will be published in America will concern the labor market, namely the monthly change in non-farm, private employment. This number is expected to drop from 208K to 195K. These forecasts suggest that the recent rise was just a step back from the prevailing downtrend.
Source: investing.com
Crude Oil Inventories
The next report will be the weekly report on the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories. The last reading was at 2.588M and this was a sharp increase. It is currently predicted to reach the level of 0.367M.
What if?
If the decline in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a increase in inventories is more than expected.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The most important event of the day, or even of the week, is the Fed's decision on interest rates. The Fed is not expected to follow other central bank decisions and will not soften its decisions. The Fed rarely deviates from expectations in its decisions, therefore the market is ready for another interest rate hike by 75bp.
We have to wait for this decision until 19:00 CET
Read more: What Can Bring The Fed's Next Decision And What It Means For Economy?| FXMAG.COM
FOMC Press Conference
U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Press Conference will take place a half an hour after decision.
Valuable comments may appear at the press conference regarding the current decision, the situation of the farm and future activities.
Summary
- 8:00 CET German Trade Balance (Sep)
- 9:55 CET German Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
- 9:55 CET German Unemployment Change (Oct)
- 13:15 CET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct)
- 15:30 CET Crude Oil Inventories
- 19:00 CET Fed Interest Rate Decision
- 19:30 CET FOMC Press Conference
