Meanwhile, looking at the structure of global invoicing (Figure 6) it appears that the euro is dominant only in the European region, while the rest of the world is a heavy user of the US dollar. As of 2019, non-USD and EUR currencies had a relatively high share of 21% in the Asia-Pacific, a region represented by China and its close partners. With the lack of fresh panel data on the FX breakdown of invoicing, the more recent trends could only be inferred through indirect data.
SWIFT is one of the possible indirect sources of data on the FX structure of trade. As can be seen (Figure 7) USD seems to be holding ground with a 42% share in 1H23, only slightly lower than the 44% seen in 2015 and higher than 2022’s 41%, with EUR, the second most popular FX, losing share in 2022-23. Among other FX (Figure 8), Asian currencies, CNY and JPY, seem to be gaining ground in SWIFT, and not at the expense of USD or EUR but rather of GBP.
Interestingly, the monthly data from SWIFT is also pointing to the implications of the new geopolitical and military realities of the post Feb-2022 world through the more than doubling of the share of CNY to 4.5% of the trade finance market (Figure 9) at the expense of USD, as the latter became toxic in Russia. Unsurprisingly, Russia also emerged in 2022 as a noticeable offshore CNY market with 3-4% share (Figure 10). There are more details on the Russian de-dollarisation case in the annex.
