GBP: Anticipating Tax Cuts in Autumn Statement for a Balanced Fiscal Approach

A year is a long time in politics. Just over a year ago, erstwhile UK Prime Minister Liz Truss blew up the UK gilt market with her plans for unfunded tax cuts. Today, the more fiscally responsible Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is also looking to deliver tax cuts – but cuts which do not derail plans to stabilise the UK debt trajectory over a five-year horizon. We think some looser fiscal policy will be welcomed by sterling at this juncture and continue to favour EUR/GBP trading back below 0.8700.