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Forex: Euro On Vacations. Do Not Count Your Chickens Before They Are Hatched!

Forex: Euro On Vacations. Do Not Count Your Chickens Before They Are Hatched!| FXMAG.COM
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US 2-years Treasury yields is testing June peak at 3.45 forming what looks like an Ascending triangle like pattern. If yields close above 3.45 first target is 3.73 but a move to around 3.90-4.00% is likely.
If rejected at the 3.45 we could see US 2-year yields test the lower rising trendline.
However, RSI is above 60 with no divergence indicating higher levels are the most likely scenario

forex euro on holidays do not count your chickens before they are hatched grafika numer 1forex euro on holidays do not count your chickens before they are hatched grafika numer 1
Source: Bloomberg.

US 10-years Treasury yields is struggling to break the 3.11 resistance just peaking above to be rejected at the 0.618 retracement at 3.13. Now being rejected twice the past week it is having another go today. If closing above 3.13 there is some resistance at 3.27 but June peak at 3.50 is likely to be tested.
However, the US 10-years is moving in what looks like a rising wedge meaning if it is once again rejected and closes below 3%, a correction down to around the 0.618 retracement at 2.76 is likely. 
However, RSI is above 60 and no divergence indication yields will break higher

forex euro on holidays do not count your chickens before they are hatched grafika numer 2forex euro on holidays do not count your chickens before they are hatched grafika numer 2
Source: Saxo Group

The US 10-years Treasury future has broken below 0.618 retracement and support at 117 5/32. If it closes below, it has further confirmed the downtrend and is on course to test June lows at around 114 7/32. Some support at around 116

 

forex euro on holidays do not count your chickens before they are hatched grafika numer 3forex euro on holidays do not count your chickens before they are hatched grafika numer 3
Source: Saxo Group

Euro Bunds gapped lower this morning below key support at 149.75 testing 0.618 retracement at 147.94. RSI is below 40 and no divergence indicating lower levels. We could see buyers trying to close the gap but the former support at 149.75 is now a strong resistance.
Some support at around 145.16

forex euro on holidays do not count your chickens before they are hatched grafika numer 4forex euro on holidays do not count your chickens before they are hatched grafika numer 4forex euro on holidays do not count your chickens before they are hatched grafika numer 5forex euro on holidays do not count your chickens before they are hatched grafika numer 5
Source: Saxo Group

 

Source: Technical Update - US 2 and 10-years Treasury yields testing key resistance levels. Euro Bund future hit by heavy selling

 

Kim Cramer Larsson

Kim Cramer Larsson

Kim Cramer Larsson started his career in 1996 as an equities trader focusing on the US and Asian markets with BG Bank, London. In 1997, Kim relocated to BG Bank, Copenhagen (BG Bank was acquired by Danske Bank in 2000) to the position of equities trader and portfolio manager. 

Kim began using technical analysis as a trading tool from 1997. In 2005, Kim was promoted to the position of technical analyst in the FX & Fixed Income Research department at Danske Bank. In his current role, Larsson focuses on technical analysis of equities, equity indexes, forex pairs, and more for Saxo Bank. Larsson’s views and analyses can be found on Saxo’s News & Research hub as well as at Saxo’s Academy where he hosts webinars focusing on chart analysis.


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