Eurozone’s entry into a recession may be delayed, the GBP and NZD - high beta currencies
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Summary:
- Analysts predict that the EUR/USD exchange rate will continue to improve.
- Eurozone entry into a recession may be delayed.
- Neither the British pound nor the New Zealand dollar seem to be winning out.
Fed still determined to bring down inflation
The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Analysts predict that the EUR/USD exchange rate will continue to improve over the course of the upcoming week, however many still believe that the market is merely clearing out technical positions rather than the beginning of a long-term recovery. The Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's remarks that the Fed was not yet prepared to cease its cycle of rate hikes helped the Dollar at the beginning of the new week. Investors' reactions to an unexpected drop in U.S. inflation caused the Dollar index, a gauge of the dollar's performance more broadly, to plummet by 4% last week.
The statistics indicated that the U.S. inflation peak is near, and the Federal Reserve should therefore think about reducing the rate of raises. Most investors are now expecting a downshift to a 50 basis point boost in December. But Waller said investors risk getting carried away with a belief the end of rate hikes is close.
EUR/USD Price Chart
Eurozones entry into a recession expected to be delayed
The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Following a 0.9% month-over-month and 4.9% year-over-year increase in September industrial production for the Eurozone, the currency received a lift on Monday. The numbers are far better than the anticipated +0.1% m/m and 2.8% y/y, indicating that the European Union's entry into recession may be postponed. The current recovery could turn out to be mostly technical in character, which would increase the dollar's strength as investors pay attention to the Fed's warnings that the cycle of interest rate hikes is far from over. This would be a risk for those looking for a stronger Euro.
The British pound is a "high beta" currency, which means that it tends to rise along with rising stock markets around the world, as was undoubtedly the case after the inflation figure.
EUR/GBP Price Chart
GBP/NZD currency pair
A busy UK calendar could mean that this pair finally offers up some excitement this week. The Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate (GBP/NZD) has been consolidating around 1.93 for nearly seven days now, and the near-term price activity is beginning to resemble the coiling of a spring. With two "high beta" currencies that are responsive to global conditions, the GBP/NZD pair has seen its price action in November mostly driven by world events. As a result, both currencies have benefited from the U.S. inflation surprise from last week. But when compared with one another, neither the British pound nor the New Zealand dollar seem to be winning out.
GBP/NZD Price Chart
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
