EUR/USD Faces Pressure Amid PMI Releases: Is More Downside Ahead?

EUR: More pain from the PMIs?

EUR/USD remains under pressure as dollar strength dominates. The euro faces an event risk from today's releases of the flash PMIs for September. It really has been the PMI releases that have hit the euro since the summer. Despite all this pessimism about the euro, however, the ECB's trade-weighted euro is only 2% off its highs in July. This can probably be read as both the strong dollar being the dominant story and the eurozone's trading partners (Europe and China) faring as poorly as the eurozone.

For EUR/USD, an imminent turnaround looks unlikely and support at 1.0600/0610 looks the last barrier before what seems the more likely dip to the 1.05 area. As discussed in the Swiss National Bank (SNB) review, the dovish turn from the SNB did not do too much damage to the Swiss franc since the SNB is still selling FX. Expect EUR/CHF to get back to 0.95 over the coming months.

Chris Turner

Elsewhere, both the Riksbank and Norges Bank hiked by 25bp yesterday, in line with expectations. The Riksbank signalled close to a 50% implied probability of another hike in its rate projections, matching market pricing. The Governor said there is a high probability of more hikes, but there seems to be low conviction within the Board. As discussed in our meeting review, this was a missed opportunity for policymakers to deliver real support to the krona, which averted a slump only thanks to the announcement that FX reserves will be hedged. Please see the background on that topic here. SEK remains vulnerable in the near term, and EUR/SEK can break the 12.00 ceiling soon.

Norges Bank was more hawkish, as it explicitly signalled another hike should be delivered in December, although that should be the last one. EUR/NOK was only modestly offered and remains tied to the 11.50 level: a confirmation that a NOK rebound (or further depreciation) relies almost entirely on external factors.

Francesco Pesole