EUR/HUF: Range Trading Expected During the Summer

EUR/HUF: Range trading through the summer

EUR/HUF: Range trading through the summer

Scope for further PLN gains seems limited. According to the central bank’s estimates, profitability of Polish exporters ceases around 4.30. €/PLN moving below 4.40 should encourage the Ministry of Finance to refrain from converting FX proceeds via the market. Also, based on our estimates (relative value model, gauging €/PLN against other market variables) the zloty is currently somewhat overvalued against the euro.

Based on available market comments, we fear that investors may be overly confident in a market-friendly conclusion to this year’s parliamentary elections. Also, with recovering internal demand, the current account surplus should vanish next year. This calls for a higher €/PLN in the fourth quarter and in 2024.

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Topics

zloty eur/pln profitability EUR/HUF fourth quarter Ministry of Finance 2024.current account surplus overvalued parliamentary elections PLN gains Polish exporters FX proceeds market variables €/PLN forecast range trading central bank estimates market-friendly conclusion recovering internal demand

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