Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Inflation and Global Market Insights

Asia Morning Bites 25 September 2023

Singapore inflation to ease slightly lower on a quiet day for macro.

Global Markets: Friday was a choppy day for US stocks, and though they ended marginally down, futures suggest that they will open positively today. Chinese stocks had a rare positive day. The CSI 300 rose 1.81%, while the Hang Seng index climbed 2.28%. US Treasury yields declined across the curve on Friday. 2Y UST yields fell 3.4bp to 5.11%, while yields on the 10Y bond fell 6bp to 4.434%. That didn’t have much impact on the USD. EURUSD. remained almost unchanged at around 1.0650. The AUD gained a little, rising to 0.6440, and the GBP slid further to 1.2243. James Smith has made a video which describes how markets are now eyeing rate cuts following the recent Bank of England pause. The JPY weakened on Friday after the disappointing lack of anything new from Governor Ueda at Friday’s BoJ meeting. Here’s a note by Min Joo Kang on the meeting and her thoughts about what comes next. Apart from the JPY, most Asian currencies made modest gains on Friday, with the THB and KRW out in front. The THB is sitting just above 36 currently, the KRW at 1336.75.
G-7 macro: There was very little on the macro calendar on Friday apart from the Bank of Japan meeting, and it is a quiet start to the week too, with Germany’s September Ifo survey the only notable data point.

Singapore: Singapore reports inflation today on a quiet day in what will be a quiet week, with much of Asia off for mid-Autimn holidays later this week. The market consensus suggests a slight dip for both headline and core inflation as favourable base effects and softer retail sales kick in. Headline inflation could dip to 4%YoY (from 4.1%YoY), while core inflation should slip to 3.5%YoY from 3.8%. This alongside slowing growth will be factored into the upcoming MAS decision next month with no likely adjustments to policy settings just yet.

Singapore inflation (25 September)
Japan department store sales (25 September)
US Dallas and Chicago Fed national activity (25 September)
Fed Kashkari speaks (25 September)
South Korea consumer confidence (26 September)
Singapore industrial production (26 September)
US Conference board consumer confidence, new home sales, FHFA house price index (26 September)
Australia CPI inflation (27 September)
China industrial profits (27 September)
Japan machine tool orders (27 September)
US durable goods orders and MBA mortgage applications (27 September)
Australia retail sales (28 September)
US initial jobless claims, personal consumption, pending home sales (28 September)
Fed's Powell, Goolsbee and Barkin speak (29 September)
Japan Tokyo CPI inflation and labor report (29 September)
Thailand trade (29 September)
US University of Michigan sentiment, personal spending (29 September)

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