Ukraine’s international reserves exceeded nearly US$36bn in May, for the first time since 2011.
This reflected continued foreign aid and lower monthly costs of FX interventions (c.US$2bn in May, down from the monthly peak of US$4bn in June 2022).
This significantly deceases near-term odds of another devaluation of the hryvnia, as the central bank may prefer a stable currency to combat inflation.
The fundamental factors behind the hryvnia remain unsupportive though.
Ukraine is running a significant trade deficit, as exports collapsed in 2022, while imports remained quite stable. With the central bank aiming to re-liberalise the FX market at some point this signals risk of further devaluation in the future
