WTI Crude Oil Driven Down By Recession Concerns, Palladium Touching 5-month Lows, Coffee Futures

Summary:

• Worries about a likely recession-driven decline in demand for WTI Crude.
• Dollar index dipped back toward 20-year highs.
• higher Brazilian real and lower global supplies for coffee.

WTI Crude Oil trading low

On Thursday, WTI oil futures were trading around $88.50 per barrel, down from a session high of $90.40, as worries about a likely recession-driven decline in demand took precedence. In a decision that was largely anticipated, the Fed increased its benchmark rate by 75 basis points. It did, however, issue a warning that interest rates would rise more than expected, maintaining the pressure on global demand and economy. Losses were however constrained by the likelihood that the global oil market would remain extremely tight. There is growing concern that the oil cartel would further intervene in markets to support prices, despite the recent agreement by OPEC+ to reduce output by 2 million barrels per day in November, the largest since the epidemic. While this was going on, Saudi Arabia warned the US through intelligence that Iran was about to attack Saudi Arabian targets. A battle in the area might cause the world market to lose millions of barrels.

✕ WTI Crude Futures Price Chart

Palladium touching 5-month lows

Palladium futures continued to decline, reaching a low of $1,820 per ounce, the lowest level in nearly five months, as the dollar index dipped back toward 20-year highs due to the possibility of further increases in interest rates, which damaged commodities. Prices for palladium are more than 40% lower than they were in March, since palladium is being replaced by platinum and interest rates are rising. In order to combat inflation even during a slowdown, the Federal Reserve, the most powerful central bank in the world, is projected to keep raising interest rates. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. The palladium market is projected to be balanced or in deficit this year and next year, according to analysts who predict supply-demand balances.

✕ Palladium Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart

Coffee futures

Due in part to the higher Brazilian real and lower global supplies, Arabica coffee futures on the ICE were trading at or around their best levels since October 25. While the International Coffee Organization reported that worldwide coffee shipments from October through September declined 0.4% year over year to 129 million bags, recent data indicated ICE-certified arabica stockpiles fell to a fresh 23-year low of 384,795 bags. The Minas Gerais region of Brazil, which produces around 30% of the nation's arabica crop, received only 79% of the historical average of 28.9 mm of rain last week, according to the most recent Somar Meteorologia report.

✕ Coffee Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart

Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com