In our latest update, we reassess our Hungarian economic and market forecasts at a time when we are still waiting for the end of stagnation and hoping for better days to come. The economy is starving for those order book fillings, and also a big dollop of extra confidence
The US remains in a steady state along the coupon curve. But there’s a lot going on in the money markets pipes as repo tightness persists. As we head into the Federal Reserve meeting, the big call would be to maintain the MBS roll-off and replace it with buying of T-bills, while broadly ending quantitative tightening
After years of unchecked budgetary slippage, Belgium’s federal government is now attempting to launch its most ambitious fiscal consolidation effort since the 1990s. The signal is clear: it’s time for action. Yet, despite the urgency, a rapid stabilisation of the debt ratio remains unlikely
Recent headlines from France offer cautious optimism, with markets showing unexpected resilience despite domestic turmoil and broader uncertainties like the US shutdown. In European bonds, recouping the foreign investor shares after QE is not yet complete, although it can be a source of volatility
Despite political uncertainty, business sentiment in France was steady in September. However, deeper cracks are emerging
Political instability and missed fiscal targets are raising doubts about France’s ability to meet EU rules and avoid further rating downgrades. Here's what's happening and how the markets are reacting
Thursday likely sees US PPI core inflation back up to 3%, while core CPI inflation was confirmed earlier this week at 3.1%. In all probability these inflation rates will be on the rise in the coming months, and can easily touch 4%. We see, for example, how proposed eSLR changes are good for Treasuries. But Treasuries can't fully ignore evolving inflation data
German 30-year yields are on the rise, with the curve hinting at more to come. German fiscal plans and Dutch pension fund reform are factors in play. The US is in a similar mode, with fiscal and CPI data followed by upward pressure on long yields
Rates Spark: The glass half empty trade. The drivers of Doge, Bessent and SLR have been added to in the guise of weaker consumer confidence and a ratchet down in expectations for the terminal rate. This market is now considering the possible downsides ahead. Can it last? Well yes for a bit. But we are constrained to the downside for yields, until or unless we seriously contemplate a recession of sorts
