Warsaw Stock Exchange: Rainbow Tours released 1Q23 preliminary figures
Aa
Share
EBITDA IFRS 16 amounted to PLN +32.6mn vs. +12mn in our estimates and +19mn market consensus (preliminary)
Recommendation:
Hold 12M TP: PLN 20.5
Rainbow Tours (standalone) released 1Q23 preliminary figures with the following highlights (PLN mn):
Sales revenues: 554.8mn (+76% y/y / +6.5% vs our model assumptions)
EBITDA IFRS 16: +32.6mn vs +0.4mn in last year (vs +12mn in our model assumptions and +19mn in market consensus)
Net income: +23.0mn vs -3.4mn in last year (vs +5.2mn in our model assumptions and +9.8mn in market consensus). Consensus and our forecasts on consolidated data.
Comment:
The impact in the comparable Q1 2023, among others, was offset by significantly increased consumer demand for package tours, offered and budgeted later also at higher prices taking into account increases in the cost of jet fuel and foreign exchange rates (costs incurred by tour operators in this regard forced increases in tour prices) and the inflation factor.
The company reported increased demand and value of pre-sold offers realized.
Our view: VERY POSITIVE
Financial results very significantly above our model assumptions and market consensus. At the current valuation, we view them positively. Forecasts for the full year will be revised significantly upward. Already after the March revenue data, it was clear that our forecasts were far too conservative for Q1 2023. Preliminary results show that the level of gross margin on sales was well above our expectations (potentially +4-5 pp. y/y vs. our expectations of an improvement of about 1-2 p.p. y/y). This is a good proxy for the crucial Q3, additionally taking into account current jet fuel prices and exchange rates. Currently, volumes in the market are very strong, but should see a slowdown in the coming months. In addition, cruise prices in the market are recording further growth of about 15-20% yearon-year. Standalone figures should not differ significantly from consolidated figures (greater impact on net income).
Dariusz Dziubiński
dariusz.dziubinski@pekao.com.pl
GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0
