573/2022/AR
Event: 3Q22 results preview.
Unimot will present its 3Q22 financial results on November 16th .
Expected quarterly EBITDA. We expect the quarterly sales to amount to PLN 3.39 billion. Our expected quarterly consolidated adjusted EBITDA estimate is as much as PLN 95.0 million (vs. PLN 12 million generated in 3Q21). We expect the Company’s EBIT and net profit at PLN 91.5 million and PLN 72.0 million, respectively.
Expected results of segment. It seems that the Company managed to fully utilize the very favourable macro conditions in the ON+bio and LPG segments. The ON+bio segment could have generated extraordinary adjusted EBITDA of PLN 90 million, while the LPG segment could have delivered as much as PLN 15 million of EBITDA. Such high estimates for both segments are triggered by extraordinary market situation caused by the war in Ukraine (and the process of sanction implementation for Russian energy products and the gradual import adjustments). Logistical constraints in Poland (maximum transport capacity is being utilised currently) are an additional factor supporting strong margins. Moreover, the Company, based on our estimates, managed to generate PLN 25 million of savings on capital group transformation (out of the PLN 30 million savings declared previously by management). In our view, the current fuel margin levels are unsustainable in the long run and they are likely to gradually normalize. However, due to very dynamic environment it is hard to be sure on the possible margin levels even in the short run. We expect the natural gas and electric energy segments to reveal adjusted EBITDA of PLN 0 million and PLN -3 million, respectively.
Expected impact: Depending on the divergence between the actual 3Q22 results and the market consensus of estimates. We continue to think the equities are very cheap: because the Company is currently generating extraordinary results, because it has a chance to cheaply acquire assets and because the outlook for 2023 seems very promising. We advise to overweight the equities.
This report is prepared for the Warsaw Stock Exchange SA within the framework of the Analytical Coverage Support Program 3.0.
