We expect Pointpack to experience significant changes in 2023E, with the recognition of a substantial part of the P2A contract with Polish Post in the firm’s financial consolidated results, effectively boosting revenues, EBITDA and the bottom line. The uptick is likely to look spectacular on a y/y nominal basis (as well as on standalone 2023E multiples with 2023E EV/EBITDA at 1.0x) and may attract some attention. However, we expect the overall effect to be quite limited (we estimate the total NPV of the P2A deal at only PLN 0.5m). Due to elevated costs in 2022E we have cut our net profit forecast to PLN 3.5m (-43% y/y) for 2022E. On the other hand, we have increased our net profit forecasts to PLN 11.0m for 2023E and PLN 10.2m for 2024E (up from PLN 8.5m and PLN 9.5m previously). Our base-case scenario does not assume an extension of the P2A contract with Polish Post, hence we still expect to see the first dividend in 2024E and we have increased our 2024E DPS forecast to PLN 9.86ps (DY of 30.9%), up from PLN 7.60ps previously. Moreover, we highlight the end of the pilot program between Zabka and InPost, which we believe dispels the risks related to InPost’s entrance to the PUDO segment. With our positive outlook on the core business, we maintain a BUY rating and set our FV at PLN 65.00ps (vs. PLN 55.00ps previously), which implies 104% upside. On our forecasts, Pointpack trades at a P/E of 3.2x/3.5x for 2023E/2024E. ‘
Two sides of the P2A coin. The contribution from P2A to Pointpack’s 2023E results look astonishingly strong: we estimate the P2A’s revenues at PLN 131.9m and EBITDA at PLN 14.4m next year (after some delays from 2022E). We think P2A’s contribution should be considered in a broader context, namely: 1) the effective price paid for a 51% stake (i.e. PLN 10m paid to one of P2A’s stakeholders for bonds issued by P2A on top of an immaterial few PLN k for equity); 2) Pointpack’s roughly 51% stake in P2A, which means that consolidated EBITDA is not the best proxy for the project’s results attributed to Pointpack; there is also the consideration of dividend payments to P2A’s minority stakeholders; and 3) the surprisingly high cost of financing (i.e. a fixed 15% on loans drawn by Pointpack). In total, we estimate the P2A project’s NPV (excluding working capital changes) for Pointpack at only PLN 0.5m, assuming no extension of the contract with Polish Post; this fades in comparison with our forecast for the P2A project’s consolidated EBITDA at PLN 14.4m for 2023E.
Improving trend of parcel volumes is a good sign. The volume of parcels handled by PUDO points within Pointpack’s network amounted to 6.8m in 3Q22, which implies +37% growth in the period versus +29%/+11% y/y in 2Q22/1Q22 (1Q22 was not fully comparable as it was negatively affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine). Pointpack’s CEO noted recently that he expects to see record volumes in 4Q22E, which should also translate into a decent y/y dynamic. With the slight slowdown in the macro environment, we would be positive about any potential improvement in the dynamics.
Analyst: Marcin Nowak marcin.nowak@ipopema.pl + 48 22 236 92 44
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