Whereas a year ago, inflation was at a 50 year high, and double figures were being approached, inflation in the United States had declined to 6.5 percent in December
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According to Gary Thompson (FXOpen UK), lower print of the US GDP could make GBPUSD even more volatile. The expected print is 2.6%.
FXMAG.COM: USA GDP is the big one this week, what asset could benefit the most from the lower/higher-than-expected print? Are you of the opinion GDP will be seriously taken into consideration by FED?
Gary Thomson, Chief Operating Officer at FXOpen UK: The forthcoming announcement which will reveal the GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 in the United States is a very interesting metric specifically because this is the period of last year during which the previously rapidly increasing inflation rate actually slowed down, stopped and inflation began to reduce.
Whereas a year ago, inflation was at a 50 year high, and double figures were being approached, inflation in the United States had declined to 6.5 percent in December. The reducing levels of inflation began in October, and by November 2022 the inflation rate was standing at 7.1 percent, therefore looking quite healthy compared to mainland Europe and the United Kingdom. In the United Kingdom, inflation remains at approximately 10%. Therefore, the Federal Reserve Bank may be unperturbed and not concerned with either reducing or increasing interest rates, largely because the inflation levels are now far lower than previously, but the economy is still slowing, therefore a conservative view may be taken.
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The labor productivity of the United States' workforce will be interesting during this period which shows strength in the US economy compared to its European counterparts, but of course lower inflation in the US means that North American companies need to pay more to their European suppliers and subsidiaries as the inflation remains high in those regions by comparison, potentially affecting corporate revenues. Therefore, GBPUSD values may be worth watching, as the British Pound has been very volatile against the Dollar recently and a lower GDP figure may exacerbate this.
It is entirely possible that the overall economy may have actually slowed during the fourth quarter of 2022, and one particular forecast alludes to that already. Tomorrow, officials are expected to report that US GDP grew by 2.6 percent in the three months to December 31, according to a Bloomberg poll of economists, which, if this turns out to be correct, would represent a move lower from the 3.2 percent in the third quarter.
