What Would Be The Best Cocktail Of US Job Data Today That Investors Wish For
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Equities retreated, the US yields and the US dollar rebounded as more Federal Reserve (Fed) members threw hawkish comments to defend their fight against inflation.
Shell warns of weak Q3
The S&P500 closed 1% lower, while Nasdaq slid 0.68% despite being more sensitive to rate hikes. The US short-term yields rose, and the dollar index gained. Gold eased, while oil extended gains.
Yet the rising oil prices fuel inflation and Fed expectations and certainly don’t do good to the overall market mood. Also, Shell warned investors that the Q3 results won’t be as breathtaking as the Q2, as the weaker gas trading and weaker refining will be reflected in the latest quarter earnings.
Today, the US will announce its latest jobs data in a tense and volatile environment of energy crisis, persistent inflation, Fed members insisting that what they are doing is right, and markets crying that what they are doing is maybe a bit too much.
A mix of soft data
Investors will be watching three main elements. The NFP data, the unemployment and participation rates, and the wages growth.
Expectation for today is a NFP read of around 250K, unemployment rate at 3.7%, and wages growth of around 0.3% over the month.
A mix of soft data will likely see a bullish kneejerk reaction, as investors are turning more concerned about the aggressive Fed tightening and are ready to bet that the rate hikes would slow down in the next few meetings and even stop, while a strong data could trigger a further selloff, as it would fail to keep the aggressive Fed hawks at bay.
Watch the full episode to find out more!
- 0:00 Intro
- 0:34 Market update
- 2:00 Shell warns of weak Q3
- 2:54 Twitter jitters weigh on Tesla, but…
- 4:06 What’s the tasty mix of US jobs data look like?
- 9:03 BoFA thinks S&P500 valuations remain high
- 10:12 And the rising sovereign debt levels?
Ipek Ozkardeskaya
Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
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