Walking Back Powell
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S&P 500 had a tough Friday as Williams and Bostic came out against too many cuts too soon – but I ask whether they can lastingly turn markets risk-off when the expectations for profits growth, no recession and Powell having been more dovish than bonds expected before FOMC, is still the mainstream expectation. Rate cuts would lead to heating up economy, and that is at odds with inflation moving towards 2% through 1H 2024 without red flags for remainder of 2024 as much as reasonably robust job market. I know, I know, continuing claims keep trending higher and small business employment index is down yoy.
The short-term overextension of the stock market continues even if the assumptions this is based on, would show up as contradictory – there is not enough of a progress on inflation without risk of repeating 1970s mistakes (oil prices had been a huge driver of disinflation) to justify rate cuts, no matter the productivity growth figures – the AI story while relevant for this decade, isn‘t yet there and able to deliver right now.
Both Fed speakers couldn‘t push stocks lower much – the Powell driven celebration is continuing with dents in market breadth and more or less waning rotations at worst. It was chiefly Russell 2000 that took it on the chin Friday, but the relative resilience in bonds keeps pointing to the upswing continuation – albeit in fits and starts as the air is thinning up there. There is no concerted risk-off move, and both retail and institutions look to be interested in buying into this rally.
Historically, markets tend to rally between the last rate hike and first rate cut, and we‘re still in the soft landing mainstream conviction, no more in the higher for longer period.
Today‘s analysis will also bring you more of the investing sectoral picks to outperform S&P 500.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 6 of them, featuring S&P 500, sectoral picks, credit markets, precious metals and oil with copper.
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Credit Markets
Bonds had a temporary setback, and the Fed duo hadn‘t been too successful in dialing back expectations of rate cuts. Markets would ignore those statements next, and continue consolidating probably not too violently, before continuing higher. Such price action definitely supports what I had been talking about in the premium stock market section.
Gold, Silver and Miners
Gold confirmed the call for backing and filling below $2,060 to be still done, but the pullback has been still decent and not interfering with the upleg that‘s slowly developing.
Copper
Copper made it through Friday‘s vulnerability very well – the red metal would be slowly extending gains.
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