In this article, we engage in a conversation with analyst Patrick Reid to discuss the potential impact of the Bank of England's interest rate decision on GBP quotes. We also explore the Turkish central bank's upcoming interest rate decision and its potential effect on TRY quotes. Additionally, we analyze the latest PMI readings in the US and Europe, examining whether they indicate the possibility of a "hardset landing." Lastly, we delve into the consolidation of US 10-year bond yields after a strong two-year uptrend and speculate on what might lie ahead based on factors such as the Terminal Rate and US macroeconomic conditions.
FXMAG.COM: How will Thursday's (22.06) Bank of England interest rate decision affect GBP quotes?
Patrick Reid:
The rate hike is fully priced in so the Forward Guidance on Future hikes is crucial to watch. We had a very hawkish FED which the market didn't tend to believe followed by an ECB indicating more hikes in July.
With regards to The BOE I feel trust is coming back but the market needs to be ready for more hikes. We have sticky Core Inflation and a mortgage crisis about to blow up.
FXMAG.COM: How will Thursday's (22.06) Turkish central bank's decision on interest rates affect TRY quotes?
Patrick Reid:
I feel Turkey needs rates above 20% as the new appointment of senior officials to the Central Bank has not done much to stop its decline.
FXMAG.COM: What do the latest (23.06) PMI readings say about the US and European economies? Do they signal the possibility of a " hardset landing " in America and the Old Continent?
Patrick Reid:
ISM has been weaker in The US as of late but Friday will be key - especially for European PMI's. USD is consolidating at the yearly lows so i fell we will need a big beat of miss for this to change
FXMAG.COM: For several months, US 10-year bond yields have been consolidating after a 2-year robust uptrend, what's next?
Patrick Reid:It all depends on The Terminal Rate and US macro. I do not see 2 Year getting above 6% this year unless inflation goes higher and GDP doesn't get much weaker.