The US Jobs Data Remains Strong, All Eyes On US PPI Report
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Do you remember we were predicting a recession, that was supposed to hit the US and the global economy at the start of the year?
A recession that would hit equities and boost bonds?
Well, forget about all that, it’s not happening.
US data
The US jobs data remains strong, inflation continues coming lower but the downtrend gives signs of slowing. And yesterday’s US retail sales data came as a cherry on top, with an eye-popping 3% rise in retail sales last month; it was the biggest jump in the past two years.
Stocks Market
The S&P500 ended the session 0.28% higher, while Nasdaq 100 stocks added almost 0.80%.
Treasury yields pushed higher, however, on expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue its rate hike policy – and quite aggressively, given that the rate hikes don’t seem to do any harm to the economy.
Deutsche Bank revised its terminal Fed rate from 5.1% to 5.6%. Citi believes that the Fed will end up pushing the rates all the way up to 6%.
Read next: Apple Is Facing Multiple Lawsuits And Enforcement Actions| FXMAG.COM
US PPI
Today, the US will reveal the latest producer price inflation data. Producer prices are expected to have ticked higher by 0.4% m-o-m in January, versus a 0.4% retreat printed last month. On a yearly basis, the PPI index is expected to have slowed from 6.2% to 5.4%.
Normally, I would expect a positive PPI surprise – meaning stronger inflation figures - to impact the market mood negatively, but at this point, I am not even sure that it matters.
Watch the full episode to find out more!
- 0:00 Intro
- 0:18 What recession?!
- 2:36 Market update
- 3:50 US PPI is out today!
- 4:37 USD up, EUR, JPY and XAU down
- 7:18 Crude oil rebounds from 50-DMA
- 8:34 Glencore’s record profit fails to convince but…
Ipek Ozkardeskaya
Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
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