In our previous recommendation, we had hoped that a decrease in CPI at the turn of 3/4Q'23 would allow the company to visibly increase advertising budgets again. However, due to the extension of the period of increased e-commerce advertising budgets associated with the 'Back to School' campaign, high marketing costs persisted from mid-August to the end of beginning of October. Thus, lower user acquisition for the 'Unsolved' app affected the flat revenue dynamics in the recent period.
On the other hand, the reduction in spending on marketing campaigns has resulted in the company achieving a record-breaking first margin (3.3- 3.4 million PLN/month). Considering the upcoming Christmas season (high CPI), we expect that comapny will increase the scale of user acquisition at the turn of the year.
At the same time, thanks to a significant improvement in the application's KPIs and the diversification of marketing channels, we anticipate a weaker impact of high CPIs on results in November-December than occurred in the comparable period of 2022.
In our opinion, the resilience of the application's results to seasonal variability will serve as another testament to the significant changes it has undergone. We anticipate that in 2024, the company will dynamically expand its user base, unlocking further monetization potential. The application results from the recent months surpass our earlier expectations, prompting us to raise our revenue assumptions for 2024 by 21% to a level of 106,6 million PLN.
