SPY, VIX and USD
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S&P 500 shook off mixed PMIs that don‘t increase Fed rate cutting odds, by still keeping above my key 4,565 support. What‘s more, it was cyclicals that kept it up, Russell 2000 didn‘t have a bad day either. There are two ways you can view this – either tech is to see some more inflows, or all that positive move on improving (global) liquidity is to get dialed back a little on USD bounce after declining through 103.
Today‘s analysis of S&P 500 with Nasdaq with market breadth and the dollar will give you my perspective. After a great November that saw clients benefit much – from swing trading (scoring +135 pts in e-mini ES in the regular position sizing, and +43 pts more if you follow the Advanced Money Management) to our intraday channel where I last added fresh DAX gain of +87 pts, there is a fresh milestone to be reached in S&P 500 as 4,565 was overcome and held Friday. I‘ll dive into the immediate prospects in today‘s premium analysis, and announce the result once all is said and done – suffice to say I‘m looking for current period of low volatility to temporarily recede a little, reasonably soon).
Talking results, since launching my site in late Jan 2021, a hypothetical account of $50K would have turned to $263K if you followed all my published calls incl. the money management techniques ($184.4K without these) in your portfolio, or if you applied that to only the stock market, following the calls made would have resulted in $165.5K with the money management techniques ($126.5K without) – broker fees, slippage and taxes / fees aren’t included, and as they always say, past performance is no guarantee of future results. And don‘t forget about the fine calls delivered along the way outside stocks in all real assets as per my overall trading philosophy that relies on heavy analytics on a daily basis within gold, oil and copper with silver for so many months already. And the intraday ES and DAX calls come on top of this! Show me which hedge funds, who has such a performance…
Talking announcements, I‘ll give a more formalized, more regular format to the Stocks and Sectors section that I had been releasing freely so often since expanding the scope in early Oct. Newly, I‘ll feature several sectors (whether in charts or in writing) in a way that benefits longer-term investors that seek to capitalize on the key macro landscape and shifts work I do for you for years already, every Sunday / Monday at least. It‘ll be about the most promising sectors (overweight, the outperformers) such as tech (where I brought you since MSFT, AAPL, GOOG and NVDA calls already while keeping talking the sector‘s bright future since yields topped), communications (NFLX shaking off distribution fears after earnings, and instead grinding higher) and either of financials / industrials / energy – with the view to feature such a selection of sectors that are likely to do well for severals weeks, making them ideal for everyone, not just quickly in and out daytraders.
This will be a new ground consistently covered (featuring price levels such as supports, resistances, good take-profit / stop-loss areas whenever justified) on top of the continued detailed index analysis with market calls (swing trading within both daily publications – Trading Signals and Stock Signals) – just like you requested and we had been finetuning over the past weeks. Thank you for all the great feedback and accuracy appreciation!
In these sectoral (stock) picks, the logic is to go with the trend, and to pick outperformers, leaders of the stock market move to unfold (move that‘s either to the upside or to the downside). That‘s more value if you‘re managing own stocks portfolio on a not daytrading basis.
Also, I‘m strengthening the club community aspect of both intraday channels – the one for stocks where we keep with Ellin generating plenty of profitable calls and commentary for clients, and the one I have for Trading Signals clients covering gold and oil real-time – 1:1 message me over Telegram your question, and I‘ll (we will with Ellin) answer that within the respective premium intraday channel to the benefit of all clients either in the upcoming analysis or in the channel.
Already serving retail investors and traders of all experience levels, and some of the leading competitors from research and signal providers, or hedge fund (you know, they are either my site‘s subscribers or keenly watching Twitter followers, or they just plain block me so as to make their defending market share easier – stifling professional discussion by supposed thought leaders, is a sorry practice) – our enhanced community service addition for premium clients of all stripes, will boost the value delivered further.
We‘ll be there also discussing more of the practical educational aspects from our technical analysis tweaks, intermarket analytics, macroeconomic and fundamental drivers, open trade management, money management, trading psychology and how in general to set yourself on the path of success and keep growing not just your account, but yourself personally. Again, 1:1 message me over Telegram your question or point and it‘ll be answered to the benefit of all clients either in the upcoming analysis or in the channel.
As you can see, plenty of fresh value introduced without any price hikes as per the every day low prices (EDLP) philosophy where the client value generated vastly outnumbers the reasonable price of participation – as Matt L. said and legions of others experience, quoting „Often enough, I found the cost of a monthly payment would be covered in one or two days trading.“
Instead of Black Friday and Cyber Monday discounts, this is the gift to welcome you – more market coverage whatever your time frame, and more resources to help you build on your own success.
Just a reminder that since the Oct 03 announcement that I resolved with the finest one of Oct 08 introducing more stock market coverage and Monica & Ellin Intraday stock market channel covering ES, DAX and individual stocks, you have seen relatively more valuable market commentary being reserved for premium clients as these will always continue to enjoy daily articles. If you aren‘t a client there, you don‘t know what you are missing – therefore, I‘m opening today‘s article stock market part (gold, silver, oil and copper remain premium – you have seen lately often how finely these calls work out) for you to experience what kind of upgrades I mean to be providing regularly premium.
Of course, I‘ll keep delivering fine analytical clues on the free Twitter, free Telegram channel and free Youtube channel – and I‘ll probably again tweet somewhat more than I did since since Oct.
The free subscription on my site is still the basis since Feb 2020, and will continue being so – far from everything is presented on Twitter, where discussions take on a life of their own. Even if you are an avid Twitter follower enjoying my contributions there, don‘t rely on Twitter feed solely as it can‘t give you the first and comprehensive picture of what‘s the full view – therefore, start with and do read the daily analyses whenever there is one.
Finally, there is a not so new tradition whereby I reward on ad hoc basis either free followers or existing clients with upgraded premium access to try it out as a reward chiefly for spreading the word about what I do on trader lists to follow, or for mentioning me at respected competitors‘ Twitter feeds with requests for market commenting (access whether to am intraday premium channel or a more comprehensive daily premium publication – and in case you‘re Trading Signals client already, then with ability to consult whatever interests you.
Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with subscribing to my Youtube channel, and of course Telegram that always delivers my extra calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.
So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter.
Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 6 of them, featuring S&P 500, NFLX, USD, precious metals and oil.
Dollar
USD confirmed my early Nov call for its top to be in, and nicely demonstrates the easing of financial conditions that‘s gathering some speed and is set to continue. Even though the dollar may initially fail to break below 103 clearly, it‘ll succeed in doing so on second try, and is to find better support around 102.30. Rebound from there would coincide with what I see ahead for stocks in the next 1-2 weeks.
Stocks and Sectors
NFLX keeps living up to the bullish leaders call made Nov 10 when it closed below $440 the preceding day- notably, it‘s only tech and communications that are above the Jul highs, with financials playing catch up, and that bodes well for further gains in these sectors, especially if your holding period is through the Santa Claus rally.
NFLX at $467 presents fine value and first support zone, yet it‘s questionable the stock would decline through mid $470s. Breaking through $485 towards $515 resistance is a more probable initial move before any consolidation with downside bias going for new supports higher up, sets in.
I‘ve already featured bullishly names such as MSFT, AAPL and GOOG. Odds are that on further retreat in yields, NVDA would eventually muster the $500 resistance too (it‘s being rejected and doubted for now, and rotations into other sectoral players are underway), but AMD is better positioned to reap immediate future rewards – and you already know how favorably I covered DELL lately.
In short, I‘m not looking for sizable downswings in these sectors or stocks – they‘ll represent buying opportunities, and that concerns both regional and big banks on declining yields. Go with the momentum, and that‘s up, with the upcoming dollar bounce presenting a buying opportunity.
Gold, Silver and Miners
Precious metals are still coiling up for more gains, and $2015 won‘t hold for too long (and $2,008 is turning into support). Volume keeps favoring the buyers, and first $2,025, then $2045 come – with the first probably still before the dollar bounce, the latter would provide a tougher ride to reach.
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