Sharp FOMC Plan

S&P 500 digested sharp SMCI earnings aftermath, spiked twice to 4,955 only to get rejected – and then the trio of less than truly stellar earnings hit. The combo of AMD, MSFT and GOOG hints at AMZN having a bit tougher ride ahead with its own earnings – all within the context of S&P 500 companies amply making their numbers, and a half of them had already reported. The end result of stock market buyers not being done here doesn‘t detract from immediate vulnerability in the whole index, led by Nasdaq. Financials stood out for overall debt issuance reasons, which will help yields to retreat going forward.

And talking stock market vulnerability, we were and are on the right side of the moves in our intraday channel. Also in my gold & oil channel, fine gold long idea was executed yesterday before the great hourly candle plunge came – and the same is true regarding yesterday‘s gold intraday bottom and open gains protection call.

For now though, the odds of Mar rate cut went from 46.6% at the onset of yesterday, to 44.7% on the close. Clearly markets are expectig non-commital Powell language, and that makes risk taking sentiment drop sensible to expect. You knwo the drill – announcement drop, pre-conference retracement, conference volatility and hit.

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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 2 of them, featuring S&P 500, yields and precious metals.

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq

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Already below 4,935, fine gradual weakness is developing into FOMC. Today, rips are to be sold – strong rotations are unlikely to develop during the regular session. The rally in stocks is though to continue in the weeks ahead, it clearly is – please review the reasoning given in Sunday‘s extensive article if you hadn‘t done so already.

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