Residential Market: Pre-Sales Surge and Continued Dwelling Price Growth
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Residential market Pre-sales volumes on track to surge
According to REAS data, the number of pre-sold dwellings in 2Q23 increased by 67.4% y/y and by 35.1% q/q, and stood at 15.4k units. The agency estimated that developers commenced ca. 10k apartments. The overall offer came in at 38.4k flats (-23.4% y/y and -12.3% q/q). We point to an ongoing recovery in the number of pre-sold dwellings, driven by easing of the cushion used in calculating creditworthiness. On the other hand, the developers are still cautious regarding new commencements, but the number of achieved permits is higher than the pace of expansion of their offers.
Dwelling prices
continue growth path In recent months we have observed constant growth in the prices of dwellings. This statement pertains to offer and transaction prices of new projects and also finished flats. According to NBP data, in the seven major cities in Poland, transaction prices grew in 2Q23 by 4.4% y/y and offer prices rose by 7.2% y/y. Based on rynekpierwotny.pl monthly data, in July and June, the growth rate in Warsaw was close to 10% y/y, in Tri-City 12-17% y/y and in Wroclaw 8-15% y/y. Moreover, the prices have increased in m/m terms. We note that the price hikes are correlated with structural changes in the commenced projects and current offer – the share of projects with an average price/sqm > PLN 10k have significantly increased in recent months.
