In Q4'23, we expect good results, a slight increase in profits compared to the previous quarter and Q4'22.
• The situation on the tools and power tools market looks quite stable, after the economic crisis reached at the end of 2022.
• We forecast a 4% increase in revenues q/q, but a 9% decrease y/y - in December 2022. Toya used price promotions to reduce inventory levels, a similar action was not carried out at the end of 2023.
• The strong zloty should help maintain a high gross margin on sales (most goods are imported from Asia and payments are made in dollars and yuan) - we assume 34.0% in Q4'23 (34.1% in Q3'23, '29, 3% in Q4'22).
• Due to lower purchase prices of goods from Asia, Toya may introduce small price reductions, without affecting the margin.
• In the last quarter of the year, general administrative costs usually increase (the effect of bonuses, premiums, etc.) - we assume an increase in this item in Q4'23 by 19% q/q (+5% y/y).
• We do not calculate significant events in other operating activities.
•Since September 13 last year, the company has no loans, only leasing (PLN 21 million at the end of Q3'23). The net cash level at the end of Q3'23 was PLN 14 million, we expect an increase to approximately PLN +30 million at the end of 2023.
• We estimate the negative balance on financial activities to be approximately PLN -0.2 million (mainly leasing interest costs).
• We forecast similar EBIT Q/Q and Y/Y.
• At the net level, we expect profit to increase by 13% y/y.
