Palantir Stock Forecast: PLTR gains on Friday open heading into Jackson Hole event

• Palantir stock lost 7.6% on Thursday.
• PLTR has traded lower on Friday ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
• Key executives have been shedding stock-based compensation en masse this week.
• A large break to $10.25 support is likely at this juncture.

Palantir (PLTR) stock gained 1.3% at the open on Friday despite trending lower in the premarket. The NASDAQ Composite, Dow Jones and S&P 500 index all rotated higher between 0.25% and 0.5%. Palantir, a leading data analytics company, witnessed its share price dive on Thursday. PLTR stock dropped 7.6% to close at $14.14.

There is general uncertainty in the leadup to Friday’s keynote speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole economic forum. Adding to fears though are a string of Palantir executives selling partial stakes in the artificial intelligence-based software provider.

Palantir stock news: Powell speech follows insider selling

At 14:00 GMT (10:00 EST), Jerome Powell will provide Jackson Hole with the three-day forum’s primary event. The market expects Powell to continue touting his sermon on keeping interest rates elevated until the Federal Reserve is certain that core inflation is under control. The fed funds rate is in a range from 5.25% to 5.5% following the July hike, and the market largely thinks the terminal rate has been achieved.

Any hint to the contrary should lead most tech stocks like Palantir much lower as growth stocks perform much better during low interest rate environments. The NASDAQ 100 index sold off 2.19% on Thursday as investors positioned for bad news out of Jackson Hole.

If an upside surprise were to occur, it would likely come from Powell announcing interest rate cuts sooner rather than later. The Fed Chair has not provided color thus far as to when rates will decrease. Goldman Sach released a note this month predicting that rates won’t drop until May 2024.

Adding to the unease in the market is this week’s string of insider selling filings. Of course, tech companies like Palantir provide executives with a good deal of stock-based compensation, so insider selling is not necessarily a major sign that the C-suite sees storm clouds on the horizon. Most often, executives just need to diversify their portfolios, pay off debt or make a major purchase like a home.

However, five important insiders filed sales documents with the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) this week, so it’s not surprising that the influx of supply has dented the share price of Palantir.

• CEO and co-founder Alex Karp sold 325,000 shares on Wednesday at an average price of $15.40 – or about $5 million in total. He still owns over 6.4 million common stock shares.
• Chief Revenue Officer Ryan Taylor sold 30,049 shares on Thursday after selling 147,827 PLTR shares on Monday.
• Chief Financial Officer David Glazer sold 376,90 Palantir shares between Monday and Wednesday, cutting his share count from 658K to about 380K.
• Chief Accounting Officer Heather Planishek sold nearly 23K PLTR shares this week but still owns just under 800K.
• Chief Technology Officer Sankar Shyam sold 650,330 PLTR shares from Monday through Wednesday. Due to several new allotments of stock-based compensation, however, Shyam still owns more than 750K shares.

Palantir stock forecast

It’s been more than two weeks since Palantir stock broke below the $17 support-turned-resistance level. With the 9-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) breaking below the 21-day SMA, PLTR stock is clearly in at least a short-term downtrend. In fact, Palantir stock is already down about 30% since topping out on August first near $20.

If PLTR breaks below $13.56, and I think this is likely, then expect a swift move toward the bespoke support at $10.25. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has fallen below the zero threshold, which often means a more drawn-out downtrend is in the cards.

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PLTR daily chart