On the Defensive
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S&P 500 bulls didn‘t close conclusively while neither bonds nor the dollar pressured them much. Today, the manufacturing data confirmed my earlier point that a manufacturing recession is inevitable following yield curve inversions – so, more deterioration. It‘s though the Fed speakers that are being feared today – the dollar and yields are enjoying a reprieve even though the dollar upswing would prove temporary as I don‘t favor 75bp hike in Dec. The momentum is though with the bears today – risk-off session awaits.
Remember the one wish for yesterday? Markets didn‘t deliver any daily steepening of the yield curve, of the 10-year over 2-year – quite to the contrary.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
We didn‘t keep above 3,958, and are unlikely to return there before the week is over – judging by the premarket today. Much depends upon the closing volume and candle shape, upon the degree to which tech is (or isn‘t) able to shake off the pressure today.
Credit Markets
Will bonds buy into the hawkish Fed messaging, or will they shake it off by the close of tomorrow? Again, volume would offer a clue as to where this unfolding downswing stops.
Gold, Silver and Miners
We haven‘t seen an important precious metals top – the sector will recover from the risk-off whiff that would extend here too – silver at $21 is cheap, and wouldn‘t suffer the same mid-Oct setback this month, just look how well the miners progressed since.
Crude Oil
Oil stocks warrant some short-term caution, but together with crude oil, have better days ahead – returning above $90 before this month is over easily.
