Nio Stock Forecast: NIO contracts 2% as Tesla delivery decline weighs on EV sector
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- Nio delivered 15,641 vehicles in September, meeting its quarterly target.
- NIO stock added about 1% on the delivery news in Monday premarket.
- Nio delivered 55,432 in the third quarter, a 75% gain YoY.
- Competitors XPeng, Li Auto are seeing much swifter growth.
Nio (NIO) stock dropped 2.3% on Monday morning despite meeting its quarterly delivery target for the third quarter. Tesla's (TSLA) Q3 production and delivery decline is the culprit. In the third quarter, Elon Musk's company produced 430,488 and delivered 435,059 vehicles. This fell from production of 479,700 vehicles and deliveries of 466,140 in the second quarter.
Nio, the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) purveyor, met its quarterly delivery target after announcing deliveries of 15,641 units in September. That figure, helped by a surplus of SUV sales, pushed Nio to meet management’s third-quarter target of deliveries between 55,000 and 57,000.
NIO’s stock price is also helped by positivity concerning a US Congressional deal over the weekend that gave the legislative body another six weeks to hammer out a budget without shutting down the federal government, as was earlier predicted. The NASDAQ Composite has gained 0.5% at the time of writing.
Nio stock news: Q3 deliveries rise 75% from a year ago
On Sunday, Nio unveiled its delivery update for the final month of the third quarter. Total deliveries of 55,432 surmounted management’s forecast at the beginning of the quarter, but deliveries did decline throughout the quarter.
July’s 20,462 deliveries were followed by August’s 19,329 deliveries and September’s 15,641. No reason was given why deliveries dropped on a monthly basis. In total, the third quarter witnessed a 75% surge in deliveries YoY, while September deliveries rose 44% YoY.
September’s figures consisted of 11,504 electric SUVs and 4,137 electric sedans. The better mix of SUVs will likely help Nio’s struggle with profitability when it reports Q3 earnings on November 9.
However, Nio’s primary competitors – XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI) – both overshadowed Nio’s data from September. XPeng reported an 81% surge in YoY deliveries to 15,310. Even more impressive, Li Auto’s September deliveries exploded 213% from a year ago to 36,060.
Also, unlike Nio, Li Auto and XPeng both experienced rising MoM delivery figures. Both EV companies advanced 1% or more in the premarket.
Nio’s share price has been beaten down since the automaker raised more than $1 billion in a dilutive convertible bond offering in mid-September. Nio’s share price fell more than 20% following the announcement, but has recently rebounded around 10%.
Nio stock forecast
Nio stock still needs to clear the $9.50 level to make the market take this miniature rally seriously. After seeming to bottom at around $8 a share early last week, NIO stock was able to rally up past $9. The $9.50 level has worked as support on August 29, back in April and at the very start of 2023. It also showed the quality of resistance in February and March, so we might expect it to do so again on a first test.
Nio stock has already closed above the 9-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) last week, so the 21-day SMA is the next obstacle. Being that it sits just a bit above $9.50, this gives the overall region around $9.50 more significance. A break and close above $9.50 would see Nio attempt to penetrate the $10.15 to $11.30 high-volume region that has had a tendency to slow down rallies.
NIO daily chart
