Miserable Breadth Must Equal SPY Decline
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S&P 500 refused the premarket decline to the 4,220 support I had been eyeing for quite a while, and didn‘t stop at 4,245 or 4,260. Only 4,280 did the trick, and even if yields were retreating still (10y to the high 4.80s), cyclicals lost their mojo. Starting today, the former three leaders (XLK, XLC and XLY) would have it difficult to extend gains, and won‘t serve as a safe haven either – not even GOOG or MSFT earnings would lift up the whole market, which did hold exceptionally well yesterday (and today premarket) thanks to the Magnificent 7.
Remember about the headline risk – Israel making the move, which is bound to lead to a quite predictable escalation starting first with Lebanon, and then probably as well West Bank, Syrian border areas, and Iran either directly or via proxies first. Providing some support to Treasuries, this environment wouldn‘t be conducive for stocks or risk taking in the near term.
Add today‘s manufacturing and services PMIs coupled with Richmond manufacturing index, and odds are these wouldn‘t be breaking down badly, meaning these would support the Fed‘s higher for longer – policy that markets are still getting accustomed to post FOMC.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 5 of them.
Sectors and Stocks
TSLA shorts will still get a better exit opportunity than this. The logical chart support is actually in the $180s rather than $200. The recent earnings haven‘t stunned the markets, and AMZN is definitely a better candidate to hold within XLY.
Gold, Silver and Miners
Gold and silver started their consolidation, and very short-term risks are to the downside. This isn‘t though the end of the upleg – prices over $2030 aren‘t a matter of many months, but rather weeks.
Crude Oil
Crude oil lost momentum a bit too early, meaning it would most likely go on consolidating around the 50-day moving average, with a slowly receding magnitude of price moves until markets start smelling impaired oil supply around the corner.
No change in copper consolidating around $3.55 – as said yesterday, it‘s acting weak, and that has to do with the real economy on track to enter recession no earlier than 3 months from today. Prospects for acceleration are faltering for 2024, and hard landing is unavoidable.
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