Jackson Hole Second Thoughts
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Powell was firm in his „job not done“ inflation fight, but stocks duly declined only in the beginning. Rising to break even 4,415, but not making it above another resistance of 4,432. While the intraday improvements in sectors and breadth might seem significant, they didn‘t change a thing – both advance-decline line and new highs new lows, remain sluggish – and neither financials, materials or industrials did too well while defensives weren‘t entirely underperforming.
Nasdaq did front run retreating yields, and tech is also the place where improvements in market breadth were best visible. USD though wasn‘t in a retreat mode, which makes the assumption that tech can extend gains from here (and fast), doubtful.
The Jackson Hole reactions across gold, oil and copper played out to the letter as stated in Friday‘s analysis. Gold and silver can look forward for more upswing while oil with copper need more time basing, and won‘t rally sharply on Monday.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 5 of them.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
4,432 would be a tough nut to crack, but there is a low volume Sun/Mon session before US markets open, so a test of it isn‘t inconceivable Grind lower and reversal of Friday‘s optimism that bonds didn‘t mirror, in a move towards 4,385, is though more probable. Tech would set the daily tone, and I‘m not looking for it to repeat Friday‘s feat.
Gold, Silver and Miners
Precious metals upswing isn‘t rolling over, but is readying an advance again. The brief episode of heavy selling was indeed reversed within 4-6 hrs, and brought about good volume. $1,950 should be overcome before Wednesday is over, and the same goes for silver $24.50.
Crude Oil
Crude oil indeed finished closer to $80 than $79, and will hold the floor for now Show of relative resiliency to copper would bode well, and is likely to happen just next – the odds are better for oil at $80.50 than for copper at $3.80.
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