Sunday‘s analysis beyond S&P 500 needs a refresher following Iran‘s strikes against various targets in Iraq and Syria – risk-off entry to the Asian session followed with stocks declining, gold declining, Treasuries declining, and only USD rising, incl. against the yen. With oil not rallying immediately either, this means uncertainty and rush to just dollar safe haven rather than sudden and lasting flip to bearishness in all risk assets. Just as gold would find a floor, so would the Big Tech – the key risk being of course continued selling into inability to rally during the onset of US session.
This is how I had been commenting on the event and technical moves right as they were unfolding, in our intraday channel:
Both charts, starting with the 4 hour one and than the 5 minute one.
Conclusion following the UK job market data?
Relief rallies are still being sold into, bottom on rising volume hasn‘t yet formed, and the key prerequisite thereof is bonds catching a good bid so as to rise again, which would (once it happens) gradually take the wind off dollar‘s sails.
The US session offers first good opportunity for stabilization and such bottom formation even if the actual drivers and negative geopolitical feedback loop persists (you remember well my freely published skepticism lately as regards „Houthi solutions“ with respect to oil...).
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