Goldilocks Latter Innings Indeed
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S&P 500 continued the post FOMC risk-on move, the bear squeeze. 4,298 was broken with ease, and the upswing didn‘t stop even in the high 4,310s. Following this level, I see the mid 4,330s as the key one that better hold – and looking at yesterday‘s semiconductors vs. tech showing or HYG intraday hesitation, or even AAPL earnings aftermath (see other big stocks, to name a few just NVDA and AMZN how they badly struggled to extend post opening gains), I favor the bears going into NFPs.
Remember that NFPs are a seriously lagging job market indicator, and even if manufacturing PMI turned south sharply, JOLTS with unemployment claims indicate real economy that is still doing fine, therefore the turn in yields we have have seen early Wednesday, is in my view jumping the end of goldilocks gun – and yet another lagging indicator, CPI, would continue to prove their stickiness, keeping some muted bets on Fed hiking alive and flaring up here and there. Did you know that inflation historically breaks down when the economy has been in recession for half a year already?
That‘s what I published before the data came.
150K is a serious miss, especially since combined with prior months downside revisions. It clearly shows goldilocks to be in its latter innings as per my latest articles and tweets.
That leave stock buyers still in the driver‘s seat without as much as a solid pullback, and invalidates gold sideways correction continuation, and boosts oil as well. Signs from yields, less than 20% hike odds till Jan 2024, EURUSD and USDJPY confirm the upswing in stocks as one to continue.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them.
Credit Markets
See continued bets on deterrioration in economic prospects to go on – long end of the yield curve would see more retreating rates today as well.
Crude Oil
Crude oil is likewise (following NFPs) to trade above $82, and to continue base building before swinging higher over the following week.
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